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Deckers stock sinks on outlook worries over Hoka, Ugg growth

admin — Sat, 25 Oct 2025 06:34:55 +0000

Hoka shoes are seen in a store in Krakow, Poland on February 1, 2023.

Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Shares of footwear maker Deckers Brands plunged 15% Friday after the company trimmed its sales guidance for Hoka and Ugg — the two brands driving its growth — over concerns that tariffs are leading to a slide in demand.

Hoka, an up-and-coming running shoe brand, is now expected to grow by a low-teens percentage in fiscal 2026 after growing 24% in the year-ago period, while Boots brand Ugg is expected to grow in the range of a low to mid single-digit percentage, after growing 13% in the year-ago period.

In May, the company said Hoka and Ugg were expected to grow in the mid-teens and mid-single digits, respectively, in fiscal 2026 but it caveated that forecast by saying it was conceived prior to the introduction of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. At the time, it quantified the expected impact to its costs but said it remained to be determined what kind of impact the new duties could have on demand.

When reporting fiscal second-quarter earnings on Thursday, finance chief Steven Fasching said the impacts tariffs and higher prices are having on demand are now more clear.

“Part of the framework that we gave at the beginning of the year really said if tariffs did not have an impact on consumers, how we saw kind of certain growth, and we still believe that, right? But we do know and we are more currently seeing some impacts on the U.S. consumer,” Fasching told analysts on the company’s conference call. “So as U.S. consumers are beginning to see some price increases. It is impacting their purchase behavior within the consumer discretionary space.”

He added the guidance isn’t far off from what the company originally thought but acknowledged there is a “little bit of a reduction” in its forecast.

The slower pace of growth for Deckers’ two top-performing lines, along with the trim to their sales guidance, signals the two brands could be losing momentum after years of outperformance. Together, Hoka and Ugg account for the vast majority of Deckers’ revenue and have been critical in offsetting weaknesses in other categories.

CEO Dave Powers, however, downplayed fears of a long-term slowdown, telling investors that both brands remain strong among core consumers.

“We’re confident in the long-term trajectory of our portfolio,” Powers said. “While tariffs and inflation are creating near-term pressure, Hoka and Ugg continue to lead in brand heat and market share gains across their categories.”

Beyond Hoka and Ugg, Deckers’ full-year revenue guidance came in lower than analysts’ expectations. In fiscal 2026, the company expects revenue of about $5.35 billion, shy of Wall Street’s $5.45 billion forecast, according to LSEG. It expects earnings per share to be between $6.30 and $6.39, roughly in line with the $6.32 per share estimate, according to LSEG.

In the company’s call with analysts, Fasching warned that tariff costs could total about $150 million this fiscal year. Executives said they expect to offset roughly half of those costs through price adjustments and cost-sharing with factory partners.

Deckers’ shares have dropped more than 55% year to date, leaving investors on edge about any signs of decelerating demand.

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Trump’s TikTok deal still worries GOP China hawks — but here’s why they’ll go along

admin — Sat, 27 Sep 2025 04:24:45 +0000

GOP China hawks are expected to reluctantly support President Trump’s efforts to save TikTok from going dark in the US – despite lingering concerns about US security, On The Money has learned.

Key Republicans were briefed earlier this week about the president’s new US-controlled company that will house the wildly popular and controversial short-video app – including how it operates the all-important recommendation algorithm.

At the closed-door briefing, administration officials told US lawmakers and staffers how a new ownership structure will remove the algorithm’s Chinese spyware and make the new TikTok safe for US users – a necessary measure to comport with a law that says the app must be banned if there’s any trace of Chinese control.

Presindet Trump signed an executive order on Thursday that gives American investors majority control of TikTok. AFP via Getty Images

As first reported by The Post, the new TikTok algorithm will be a version of the Chinese algorithm owned by Beijing-based ByteDance that will be reformatted by Oracle, the software giant co-founded by billionaire Trump backer Larry Ellison.

Nevertheless, Congressional staffers remain skeptical whether the new algorithm can be rewritten to be completely protected from Chinese espionage given some of the wonky details of the deal disclosed during the briefing, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter. The algo will still be China’s and will be leased to the new US company.

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“From a national security standpoint this isn’t so great,” said a person with direct knowledge of the briefing. “The algo will be leased by the Chinese to the US TikTok for 10 years and Oracle won’t have complete say in terms of how to change it.”

A press official for Oracle had no immediate comment as did a Trump spokesman.

As first reported by The Post, the new TikTok algorithm will be a version of the Chinese algorithm owned by Beijing-based ByteDance that will be reformatted by Oracle. REUTERS

In addition to concerns over the algorithm, some lawmakers fear the Chinese will be the biggest winner from the deal, gleaning around 50% of the new company’s profits given the 20% ownership stake ByteDance will keep in the new company, and the cost of the licensing agreement for the algorithm from ByteDance.

In fact, the cost of the algorithm, which is being paid from TikTok revenues, has reduced the valuation of the new company from the expected $40 billion to around $16 billion.

At a closed-dorr briefing, administration officials told lawmakers and staffers how a new ownership structure will remove the algorithm’s Chinese spyware and make the new TikTok safe for US users. ZUMAPRESS.com

Oracle plans to brief Congress in the coming weeks and hearings may be held in the months ahead. US lawmakers are reluctant to buck President Trump, who is said to consider the deal key to his broader negotiations with China over trade.

“I don’t think this is a hill anyone in the Republican Party is going to die on given how much the president wants this deal,” said a person close to the GOP China hawk wing.

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Sources note that the Congressional ban law’s interpretation of “control” – with respect to both ownership and the algorithm – rests largely with the president. Trump and Vice President JD Vance, who played a key role in hammering out the new TikTok structure, believe the US security safeguards are sufficient to comport with the law.

Trump was a TikTok hater during his first term, and attempted to ban the app in the US believing it was used by the CCP for spycraft. But he’s since had a change of heart, attributing his victory in the 2024 election partly to his campaign’s flooding TikTok with pro-MAGA content.

In April 2024, former President Biden signed bi-partisan legislation banning TikTok from US app stores if it didn’t relinquish Chinese control. Trump has issued executive orders preventing the ban from taking place until a new US TikTok deal could be cobbled together. That deal was finalized Thursday.

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Here are 4 big worries plaguing investors — as stocks hit all-time highs

admin — Mon, 22 Sep 2025 10:44:46 +0000

With stocks notching all-time highs here and abroad, investor skittishness is likewise going through the roof – after all, there’s more to lose than ever, right? Here are four particularly niggling and nervous questions I have been fielding of late. Let’s try and sort out which are worth our time – and, of course, our money.

Don’t the economy and stocks need the Fed to cut rates NOW?

Might Fed cuts benefit America? Sure! Cuts can steepen the yield curve — the gap between short-term and long-term interest rates. This spurs bank lending, as I detailed in July — one crucial reason that US stock markets this year have been outrun by rate-cutting Europe and other markets overseas.

With stocks notching all-time highs here and abroad, investor skittishness is likewise going through the roof – after all, there’s more to lose than ever, right? REUTERS

But that doesn’t mean the US desperately needs cuts. As America’s own yield curve flipped from inverted (meaning short rates topped long) to flat this year, lending accelerated from 2.8% versus a year earlier at 2024’s end to 4.5% now. That should continue. America’s economy has other headwinds, but tight credit isn’t an overwhelming one.

And yes — there is a chance that Fed cuts will trigger lower long rates, including mortgage rates. But it’s only a chance — not a given. The global free market sets long rates. History proves you can’t predict long rates from short rate wiggles — at all.

How should investors position if they expect manufacturing to reshore in America?

Despite hearsay, a manufacturing homecoming isn’t necessarily bullish or bearish for US Industrial stocks. Markets mostly care about earnings. Where something is made doesn’t necessarily translate to profits. Reshoring can bring high upfront and ongoing costs – example, vastly higher environmental regulations – hurting margins.

Also, reshoring is a looooong-term issue – if it ever happens at all. Consider the investment, planning and multi-agency state and local permitting time and requirements involved in reshoring plants. Then lawsuits – NIMBY opposition dragging timelines painfully further. This takes years, far beyond the 3-to-30 month window I’ve long taught you stocks generally weigh — making current investing based on reshoring pure speculation.

US stock markets this year have been outrun by rate-cutting Europe and other markets overseas.

Can I trust the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ jobs numbers?

Jobs data grow more slippery – not from politics but because firms respond ever less and more slowly to the BLS’s surveys – everywhere. Indeed, response rates to statisticians’ surveys are declining globally. That sparks revisions – sometimes huge ones – as lagging data trickle in. Yet private-sector data abound for cross-checking.

Critically: Monthly data are always wiggly – too noisy for sound investment decisions. Plus, jobs are always late-lagging indicators – usually confirming past realities markets previously pre-priced. Don’t fret or trust one or two months’ revisions – or any single data point.

Don’t fret or trust one or two months’ revisions – or any single data point. Christopher Sadowski

Will President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA)” kill Social Security funding?

This is fraught with politics, so check your biases. Focus on facts not opinions (which with politics most people painfully confuse). Social Security Agency (SSA) officials estimate OBBBA’s $4,000 SSA tax deduction will lop $169 billion from the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance trust funds over the next decade. That shifts SSA’s projected “insolvency” date from Q3 2034 to Q1 2034.

Scary? Zoom out. First, “insolvency” doesn’t mean “zero benefits” or the program’s “bankruptcy.” Annual revenues would keep paying about 70% to 80% of SSA’s benefits through 2100.

Politicos have huge electoral incentives to keep Social Security chugging. Ron Sachs/CNP / SplashNews.com

The SSA taxes OBBBA cuts actually account for a measly 4% of SSA’s revenues. Most – 91% – comes from payroll taxes. OBBBA doesn’t touch them. And that $4,000 deduction? It is temporary, expiring in 2028 (kind of obvious why…).

Finally, all these estimates are notoriously imprecise, hinging on assumptions about economic growth, interest rates, birth rates and more. They exclude potential future adjustments politicians can make without affecting current beneficiaries. Politicos have huge electoral incentives to keep Social Security chugging.

Welcome these fears – they form the “Wall of Worry” that fuels bull markets. Have others? Drop ’em in the online comments! I may include them in future columns.

Ken Fisher is the founder and executive chairman of Fisher Investments, a four-time New York Times bestselling author, and regular columnist in 21 countries globally.

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Best Buy maintains annual forecast on tariff worries — shares fall

admin — Fri, 29 Aug 2025 01:09:09 +0000

Best Buy (BBY.N), stuck to its annual sales and profit forecasts on Thursday despite posting quarterly results that topped estimates, as it expects tariff-induced uncertainty in the second half of the year.

Shares of the top U.S. electronics retailer fell 5.7% in morning trading, as investors focused on a likely hit to the company’s margins due to higher tariffs on U.S. imports.

Several retailers, including Best Buy, have had to raise prices on some goods to absorb the hit from these steep levies.

While Best Buy posted quarterly results that topped initial estimates, its annual sales and profit forecasts stayed put. Getty Images

Company executives said the price hikes were lower than the overall rate of tariffs, owing to its mitigation strategies.

Best Buy, which sources most of its goods from China, has also made efforts to diversify its supply chain and purchase more products from fewer partners to negotiate better terms in a bid to counter higher costs.

Meanwhile, the company’s sales have struggled over the past three years as price-sensitive shoppers put off big-ticket purchases.

CEO Corie Barry said customers had become more deal-focused and waited for shopping events such as Black Friday and back-to-school promotions, even though spending remained resilient.

“Big-ticket purchases are approached more carefully, though consumers continue to spend on expensive technology when there is a clear need or innovation,” Barry said on a post-earnings call.

Best Buy shares fell 5.7% this morning as the higher tariffs on U.S. imports have led to the electronics retailer taking a hit in its stock. Christopher Sadowski

On a media call with journalists, Barry said that the White House had been open to feedback from Corporate America on the impact of tariffs.

Strong sales of Nintendo Switch 2 gaming consoles, which were launched in June, and a surge in demand for artificial intelligence-powered laptops and mobile phones helped reverse a sales decline during the quarter.

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“Tariffs and a pullback in discretionary big-ticket categories remain a drag, and unlike general merchandise (retailers), Best Buy has limited fallback categories to absorb that pressure,” Emarketer analyst Suzy Davidkhanian said.

Comparable sales for the quarter ended August 2 rose 1.6%, the biggest increase in three years. Analysts on average had expected a 0.52% drop, according to data compiled by LSEG.

On an adjusted basis, it earned $1.28 per share, compared with the estimates of $1.21 per share.

The company expects comparable sales for fiscal year 2026 to range between a 1% drop and a 1% rise and an adjusted profit of between $6.15 and $6.30 per share.

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