Walmart CEO John Furner, left, and Target CEO Michael Fiddelke.

Walmart (L) | Getty Images (R)

When Walmart and Target report holiday earnings this quarter, investors may quickly brush off those results.

Instead, they will likely focus more on the two big-box retailers’ futures under new CEOs and the outlook for U.S. consumers in 2026.

Both companies had leadership changes this month: Walmart CEO John Furner and Target CEO Michael Fiddelke, both longtime company insiders, took on their roles on Feb. 1.

The rival retailers have contended with the same economic challenges. U.S. consumers are still spending, but buying selectively, as inflation and tariffs fuel higher prices for groceries and other essentials and cause some shoppers to think twice about discretionary purchases.

Yet while both Walmart and Target have new CEOs, their paths forward look distinctly different.

Walmart’s stock has shot up by about 163% over the past five years and has risen about 24% over the last year, as of Tuesday’s market close. It hit a 52-week high Tuesday. Shares of Target, on the other hand, have tumbled by about 40% over the past five years and dropped 10% over the past year.

The retailers’ stock market performances reflect their sharp divergence in sales results. Walmart is attracting shoppers across incomes and gaining momentum with online sales and higher-margin businesses like advertising. Target is struggling with slower sales and weaker store traffic. Walmart expects its full-year net sales to rise by 4.8% to 5.1%. Target, on the other hand, is on track for a full-year sales decline.

Walmart CEO John Furner inherited a business that’s “fundamentally sound” and “on a great trajectory,” said Neil Saunders, managing director and retail analyst at GlobalData.

“In many ways, his job is to keep the ship steady and see what he can do to add to the speed,” he said.

On the other hand, Target CEO Michael Fiddelke has to “sell the Target of the future” after four years of roughly flat annual sales, Saunders said.

“What I think he’ll want to do is to inject some excitement, to say, ‘Look, I’m really excited about this role. I’m really excited about where Target could go. We are going to change things. We’re going to become a different business. We’re going to get back to what we were before,'” he said.

Here’s a closer look at what we know so far about the CEOs’ plans and what investors will listen for during earnings:

Walmart Inc. signage during the company’s listing at the Nasdaq MarketSite in New York, US, on Tuesday, Dec. 9, 2025.

Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Walmart: Extending the winning streak

Walmart will report its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings before the bell on Thursday.

The retail giant has had a busy few months: Along with the company getting a new CEO, its market cap surpassed $1 trillion in early February. In December, the company switched its stock listing from the New York Stock Exchange to the tech-heavy Nasdaq, a nod to its aim to be perceived by investors more like its key rival Amazon, and it was added to the Nasdaq-100 index in January.

When longtime CEO Doug McMillon stepped down from the role, he said in an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that he was passing the torch to Furner as the company accelerates its artificial intelligence adoption and reshapes its business and the way its customers shop.

Walmart has announced deals with two major AI chatbot platforms, OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini, to make it easier for shoppers to find and buy its products.

Furner, who like his predecessor moved up the ranks at Walmart during decades at the Arkansas-based company, oversaw the largest segment of the company in his previous role as CEO of Walmart U.S. Furner got picked in part because of his success expanding Walmart’s digital business, a pivotal piece of its future, said Kate McShane, a retail analyst for Goldman Sachs.

Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) announced that its Board of Directors has elected John Furner, 51, to succeed Doug McMillon, 59, as President and Chief Executive Officer of Walmart Inc., effective February 1, 2026.

Courtesy: Walmart Inc.

Walmart in May posted its first profitable quarter for its e-commerce business in the U.S. and globally, as its home deliveries, ads business and third-party marketplace all grow.

Corey Tarlowe, a retail analyst at Jefferies, said Walmart investors “want more of the same” — namely more e-commerce growth, grocery success and market share gains with a wider range of customers, including more affluent shoppers.

Yet Walmart’s results for the holiday quarter could mark an inflection point in the world of retail. Amazon could take the crown as the largest retailer by annual revenue for the first time, even though the company makes a lot of its money from tech services like cloud computing and advertising.

Saunders said the comparison isn’t apples to apples, but is “symbolically important” as the two competitors try to outmatch one another. Walmart has grown in part by leaning on stores to deliver groceries and offer pickup for online orders. Amazon, which recently announced it would shutter Amazon Fresh and Go stores and turn some into Whole Foods locations, had tried to “bolt on” fresh food to its huge existing volume of online orders, he said.

As the nation’s largest grocer by revenue, Walmart also is fending off the expansion of privately held discounter Aldi, and could feel the heat turned up by supermarket operator Kroger, which recently hired Walmart alumnus Greg Foran as its new CEO.

In a memo sent to employees on his second day as CEO, Furner said his leadership will be shaped by his more than 32 years at Walmart, adding he believes the company “is well-positioned to lead in this next era of retail.”

“This next era will unlock new ways to bring our people-led, tech-powered vision to life,” he said in the memo. “By leveraging our global scale, we can better serve customers and members with speed, reliability, and greater experiences, wherever they choose to shop with us.”

He said that strategy is already coming to life as “technology and AI are helping reduce friction in our work, simplify decisions, improve inventory flow, and free up time so you can focus on what matters most: serving customers and members and one another.”

Customers shop at a Target store on Feb. 10, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois.

Scott Olson | Getty Images

Target: Chasing a comeback

For Fiddelke, Target’s earnings report could be the deepest look yet at the cheap chic discounter’s road map to return to growth.

The company is chasing a comeback and plans to share its holiday-quarter results and current fiscal year expectations on March 3 at a financial meeting at its Minneapolis headquarters.

The big-box retailer has struggled with a laundry list of challenges. Store and website visits have declined. Customers have complained about store conditions, including out-of-stock items and long checkout lines. And Target has also dealt with boycotts and backlashes to the company’s political and social stances, such as its rollback of diversity, equity and inclusion pledges and its decision not to publicly oppose the surge of immigration enforcement in its hometown.

As sales decline, Target has shrunk its workforce. It cut 1,800 corporate roles last year in its first major layoff in a decade.

Target’s earnings report is more highly anticipated than Walmart’s because there are so many questions about its turnaround strategy and how long it may take, Goldman Sachs’ McShane said. Investors have debated how much the company may need to invest in merchandising, marketing and store labor to boost its sales.

“Walmart has pursued a much more aggressive digital agenda than Target between their omnichannel and their automation and their marketplace,” she said.

She added that while Target doesn’t want to be Amazon or Walmart, “they have to figure out who they want to be and how to compete.”

Target’s Chief Operating Officer Michael Fiddelke will take over as CEO from Brian Cornell.

Courtesy of Target

Already, Fiddelke has sent signals that he is making changes. Last week, he announced in an email to employees that Target will step up store staffing, though Fiddelke and the company declined to say how much it would invest in additional hours for employees. It is also cutting about 500 roles at distribution centers and regional offices.

Fiddelke shook up Target’s leadership team effective Sunday, bringing back the role of chief merchant and announcing a high-profile departure. Cara Sylvester, formerly chief guest experience officer, became Target’s chief merchandising officer, and Lisa Roath, formerly chief merchandising officer of food, essentials and beauty, succeeded Fiddelke as chief operating officer.

At the same time, Chief Commercial Officer Rick Gomez is leaving the company after more than a decade, and Jill Sando, chief merchandising officer for apparel and accessories, home and toys and entertainment division Fun101, will retire.

Target has also opened a new concept store in New York City’s SoHo neighborhood. While the location is one of a kind, its focus on fashion may inspire more changes at stores across the country and in the suburbs, McShane said.

That push to feature stronger products is a major piece of Fiddelke’s strategy. In an email to employees and customers during his first week, Fiddelke laid out four priorities: sharpening Target’s merchandising, improving the customer experience, speeding along technology and strengthening the company’s workforce and its surrounding communities.

Jefferies’ Tarlowe said Target’s upcoming investor event is “a chance for them to essentially communicate to everybody and say ‘We hear what you want. Here’s how we are going to deliver on it.'”

“Change is happening, it’s a question of does the market see it and appreciate it,” he said.

Correction: This story has been updated to reflect that Walmart switched its listing from the New York Stock Exchange to the Nasdaq in December and was added to the Nasdaq-100 index in January. A previous version misstated the date it moved to the Nasdaq stock market and mischaracterized its move to the Nasdaq-100.

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Walmart Inc. signage during the company’s listing at the Nasdaq MarketSite in New York, US, on Tuesday, Dec. 9, 2025.

Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Estée Lauder sued Walmart in California federal court over allegations the big-box retailer sold counterfeit beauty products on its website and didn’t do enough to ensure only authorized and authentic merchandise was offered to consumers. 

Estée Lauder said it purchased, inspected or tested a number of products sold on Walmart.com that used the Le Labo, La Mer, Clinique, Aveda, Tom Ford and Estée Lauder trademarks but were determined to be fakes, according to the suit, filed Monday.

The products include counterfeit versions of Estée Lauder’s Advanced Night Repair serum, a Le Labo fragrance, a Clinique eye cream, a La Mer lotion, an Aveda hair brush and a Tom Ford fragrance. 

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xemplars of the Estée Lauder Accused Products

U.S. District Court Complaint

It’s unclear when Estée Lauder bought and tested the products but the suit comes several months after CNBC published an investigation into counterfeit beauty products and fraud on Walmart.com.

Two of the counterfeit products cited in CNBC’s investigation — Estee Lauder Advanced Night Repair serum and Clinique Smart Clinical Repair Wrinkle Correcting Eye Cream — were also mentioned in Estée Lauder’s lawsuit. It’s unclear if the products cited in the suit are the same counterfeits CNBC provided to Estée Lauder. 

In response, Walmart initially told CNBC in a statement it requires “all sellers to offer only authentic, lawful merchandise” and it doesn’t tolerate “bad actors” on its platform. It then recalled the message and sent an abbreviated statement to CNBC two hours later that removed that language.

“We are aware of the complaint and have zero tolerance for counterfeit products,” the revised statement read. “We will respond appropriately with the court when we are served.” 

Estée Lauder didn’t return a request for comment. 

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Exemplars of the Clinique Accused Products

U.S. District Court Complaint

While the products were sold by third-party sellers on Walmart’s online marketplace, Estée Lauder said the company played an active role in facilitating those sales to shoppers in its suit. The legacy beauty company called Walmart’s conduct “extreme, outrageous, fraudulent … despicable and harmful.” 

The counterfeit products were promoted and advertised to shoppers on the platform, Estee Lauder’s trademarks were used in search engine optimization tools to drive traffic to the listings and Walmart profited from the sales, the complaint stated. 

Further, “a person shopping on Walmart.com would have reasonably believed that Walmart, and not third-party sellers, was the seller” of the item, which could have caused confusion among shoppers, the complaint states. 

At the heart of CNBC’s investigation into Walmart’s online marketplace was the steps the company took, or didn’t take, to vet its third-party sellers and the products they were offering to prevent fraud and the sale of fakes on the platform. 

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Exemplars of the La Mer Accused Products.

U.S. District Court Complaint

In its complaint, Estée Lauder said Walmart promoted the “reputation and professionalism” of the sellers permitted to operate on the platform but said the retailer actually does “very little to ensure that only authorized and authentic products are available” for sale. 

“This is readily apparent given the [counterfeits] were permitted to be sold on Defendants’ website despite their stated careful selection process in who they choose as a Marketplace seller/partner,” the complaint states. “Accordingly, Defendants know or had reason to know that the sellers they partnered with and ‘regularly review[ed]’ were selling products which infringe upon the Estée Lauder Marks.” 

Walmart’s online marketplace has become a key part of its strategy to grow profit faster than sales and better compete against its longtime rival, Amazon. The rapid growth of the online platform helped fuel Walmart’s ascent to a $1 trillion market cap last week, putting it in an exclusive club made up almost entirely of technology companies. 

However, the strategy has come with risks, CNBC’s investigation revealed. Offering counterfeit, potentially dangerous, products to shoppers through third-party sellers on the marketplace opens Walmart up to liability and could erode the customer trust at the core of its brand.

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Exemplars of the Le Labo Accused Products

U.S. District Court Complaint

Ever since a 2010 court ruling that arose after Tiffany sued eBay over counterfeit products on the platform, it can be tough for brands to hold platforms accountable for their role in selling counterfeit goods. Sometimes, they avoid lawsuits unless the conduct is extreme or particularly flagrant, experts previously told CNBC.

The Shop Safe Act, a bipartisan federal bill that aims to curb the sale of fakes on online marketplaces, is designed to address some of the issues posed by the Tiffany v. eBay ruling by incentivizing platforms to better vet sellers and the products they’re offering. When platforms comply with certain anti-counterfeiting measures, they could be shielded from liability if a seller offers a fake product. 

Brands widely supported the legislation, but it has so far failed to pass at least three times. That’s partially because Walmart and other online marketplaces like Amazon, Etsy and eBay have lobbied against aspects of it, two U.S. Senate aides, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the discussions were private, previously told CNBC. 

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A Walmart sign hangs on the exterior of the store on Nov. 20, 2025 in Hollywood, Florida.

Joe Raedle | Getty Images

Walmart and Google said Sunday that shoppers will soon be able to use Google’s artificial intelligence assistant Gemini to more easily discover and buy products from the retail giant and its warehouse club, Sam’s Club.

Incoming Walmart CEO John Furner and Google CEO Sundar Pichai announced that the companies have teamed up on stage at the National Retail Federation’s Big Show, an annual industry conference held at New York City’s Javits Center.

The CEOs did not say when the new feature will launch or share financial terms. The company said the experience will start first in the U.S. and then expand internationally.

With the Google deal, Walmart is boosting its effort to keep up with customers who are using AI chatbots to save time or look for inspiration. Walmart announced a deal with a rival to Gemini, OpenAI’s ChatGPT, in October to allow shoppers to make purchases with “Instant Checkout,” a feature that allows them to buy an item without leaving the AI chatbot. OpenAI recently launched that feature with Walmart and it has Instant Checkout deals with other retailers, including Etsy and several Shopify merchants like Skims, Vuori and Spanx.

Walmart also has its own AI chatbot, a yellow smiley-faced assistant on its app called Sparky.

“The transition from traditional web or app search to agent-led commerce represents the next great evolution in retail,” Furner said in a news release. “We aren’t just watching the shift, we are driving it.”

In his remarks on stage, Furner, who will step into Walmart’s top role on Feb. 1, said Walmart is “rewriting the retail playbook” and, with AI, it’s “trying to close the gap between I want it and I have it.”

Pichai said that Google is excited to work with Walmart and described the adoption of AI as a “transformative” moment.

For Walmart, the evolution of customers’ shopping habits — such as searches that start in an AI chatbot rather than its own app or website — is reshaping the retailer’s digital strategy. In a statement, David Guggina, Walmart U.S.’s chief ecommerce officer, said agentic AI “helps us meet customers earlier in their shopping journey and in more places.”

“Over time, these agents will make it easier for customers to find what they need, want and love,” he said.

Walmart leaders have also been vocal about how AI will change the workforce and employees’ roles, comments that carry additional weight as the company is the largest private employer in the U.S.

Walmart CEO Doug McMillon, who is retiring and will be succeeded by Furner, has spoken about the sweeping impact of the technology, saying that “it’s very clear that AI is going to change literally every job.”

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Construction company Alquist 3D worked with Walmart last year to build a nearly 8,000-square-foot 3D printed addition to its store in Athens, Tennessee.

Alquist

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Walmart partnered with construction company Alquist 3D last year to build an almost 8,000-square-foot addition to its store in Athens, Tennessee, for online order pickup and delivery services. It is the largest 3D-printed commercial structure in the U.S. and, despite a bumpy start, a key proof of concept for the technology’s commercial viability. 

Alquist, based in Greeley, Colorado, just announced it will now print more than a dozen new Walmart buildings, as well as buildings for other commercial retailers, in what is arguably the largest-scale commercial real estate deployment of this technology, which has mostly been used in residential construction so far. 

As part of that deal, Sika, one of the world’s largest construction materials companies, with a heavy focus on sustainability, will provide materials to Alquist for all future 3D-printed projects and licensees. This will streamline Alquist’s national pipeline, lower material and freight costs, and accelerate development of more sustainable mixes for large-scale 3D-printed construction — including the commercial projects rolling out with Walmart, according to Alquist.

“This collaboration positions Sika at the forefront of next-generation construction, opening new markets and creating long-term growth opportunities,” said Noah Callantine, 3D concrete printing engineer and field service specialist with Sika.

It is a clear turning point in CRE construction, which has been notoriously slow to modernize. The new technology has started to grow in the homebuilding market, but has been far slower in commercial construction, simply due to the size of the printers needed to create larger buildings.

Alquist, which designs and builds the larger-scale printers, as well as develops the code and software to operate them, started in the residential sector. It is now partnering with a large equipment rental dealer and a full-service general contractor to scale the technology commercially nationwide. Doing so helps to lower the high cost of materials, as well as the labor, which needs to be both trained and local, according to Alquist. 

“The way to bring prices down [for] anything is to get volume, and as you get volume, you get the attention of suppliers. They see that it matters, and the more that they make, the cheaper that they can bring their supply chain down,” said Patrick Callahan, CEO of Alquist.

Growing pains 

Construction company Alquist 3D worked with Walmart last year to build a nearly 8,000-square-foot 3D printed addition to its store in Athens, Tennessee.

Alquist

Callahan’s background is in defense technology, not construction, and he has positioned Alquist as a tech company. He said he follows the mandate of company founder Zach Mannheimer to find ways to build residential and commercial buildings and infrastructure faster, cheaper, better and greener. 

He admitted the first project in Athens took far too long, as they worked out the kinks in both managing the materials and implementing the technology to print their first commercial building. 

“It was a sort of classic Silicon Valley failing forward job,” Callahan said.  “We were not part of the design process. They changed permitting. … The general contractor that we fell under met us about a week before we started, and nobody had ever done this before.”

The second project, a 5,000-square-foot Walmart pickup center in Huntsville, Alabama, took just seven days to complete. 

3D labor 

While the projects take far fewer workers, they need to be more highly trained than typical construction trades. Alquist partners with trade schools for its curriculum, introducing robotics and green materials. Callahan said that has been more attractive to what has been a severely reduced construction labor market in recent years.

“You’re not necessarily throwing rocks around up on a scaffolding, but using robotics in a safe, clean environment,” Callahan said. “We’ve seen a lot of what used to be traditional construction folks that kind of pushed back, they’re now leaning in.”

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Growing competition

Icon Build, the largest residential 3D printing technology company, is also starting to dip its toes into commercial construction. It has completed a hotel project and is now in talks with potential commercial partners, including for construction of data centers. Its forthcoming Titan printer will be able to handle those larger-scale projects. 

“I think once that’s out in the world, showing what it can do, verifying the cost estimations that we’re making to customers, I think that’ll probably open a lot of people’s eyes,” said Jason Ballard, co-founder and CEO of Icon. “I think we should expect to see a lot of interest in alternative ways of construction, data centers and other kinds of commercial things as well.”

But Ballard sees more headwinds than Callahan, particularly when it comes to labor. He said data centers are already “sucking up a lot of the labor in the market.” He added that 3D printing for commercial buildings will have similar pressures as residential to build more affordably and more quickly relative to conventional construction methods. 

That said, Ballard said next year Icon will be manufacturing at least one of the new Titan printers each month, setting itself up to scale construction dramatically. Those printers will be able to create most types of industrial commercial buildings, although they are not ready for high rises. 

“If we do what I expect that we’re going to be able to do next year and show, both on the revenue side, the cost side, the technology advancement side — I think we’ll grow over 300% next year, and we were already pretty busy this year,” Ballard said. “I think the world’s going to start to say, perhaps there are real opportunities to do better, beyond the pilot scale.”

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Sign at the entrance to a Walmart in Venice, Florida(L), and a T.J. Maxx store in Pinole, California.

Getty Images

As more major retailers post earnings, one theme is clear: Value players are winning both the wealthy and the cash-strapped.

Walmart and TJX, T.J. Maxx’s parent company, stood apart from the pack this week by hiking their full-year forecasts and expressing optimism about the start of the holiday season. Both said sales have grown as they win shoppers across the income spectrum, in the same week other major U.S. retailers Home Depot, Lowe’s and Target cut their profit outlooks and said they saw consumer reluctance to make large purchases.

In an interview with CNBC, Walmart CFO John David Rainey said the big-box retailer has seen “value-seeking and choiceful” spending patterns by consumers for the past several quarters. He said “it stands to reason, if there’s a little incremental strain on the consumer, they’re only going to become more so, they’re going to look for more value.”

And TJX CEO Ernie Herrman said the company, which includes Marshalls and Home Goods, has seen a “strong start” to the holiday quarter and is “convinced that consumers will continue to seek out value.”

Shares of both Walmart and TJX rose on Thursday, even as the three major U.S. stock indexes turned negative.

The performance of the two retailers, which are both strongly associated with compelling deals, jumps out at a moment when investors, industry watchers and economists are trying to predict retail sales during the critical holiday season and the outlook for the U.S. economy next year. Their performance could bode well for other off-price chains, such as Ross and Burlington, and value-focused players, including Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Five Below and Costco, which will report their most recent earnings in the coming weeks.

In recent months, a mix of factors have made it difficult to gauge how retailers and the broader economy will fare in the months ahead. That includes jitters about the job market following major layoffs at companies including Amazon, Verizon, UPS and Target, and concerns that the stock market has been propped up by artificial intelligence companies, contributing to the risk of an bubble. A prolonged government shutdown also muddied the waters by delaying the release of recent jobs and inflation data.

There have also been contradictions between what consumers say and do. Consumer sentiment has tumbled to nearly the lowest level ever, even as retail sales grew stronger in October, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor.

That’s led to murky holiday expectations. For example, the National Retail Federation predicted that holiday sales will grow by 3.7% to 4.2% year over year and top $1 trillion for the first time, while consulting firm PwC said consumers plan to cut their holiday spending average by 5% compared to the year-ago holiday season.

Home Depot, Lowe’s and Target put their thumbs on the scale this week. All three lowered their full-year profit forecasts and spoke of pressure on their businesses as customers hesitate to take on bigger projects or make pricier purchases.

For Home Depot and Lowe’s, the lack of consumer confidence may prolong a period of conservative spending driven by lower housing turnover. For more than two years, they have seen customers take on smaller home improvement projects rather than splurges like remodels and renovations that cost more or require financing. That pattern has held, even though they cater to U.S. consumers who typically own a home and have benefitted from home equity gains.

Lowe’s CEO Marvin Ellison said even homeowners are “not immune” to feeling shaken by news headlines about the government shutdown, higher tariffs and other policy changes that could hit their wallets — which could encourage price-sensitivity and procrastination on purchases. He said the home improvement retailer has focused on ways it can move the needle with its own strategies, such as expanding its merchandise assortment and attracting more home professionals as customers.

Target, which has faced some struggles of its own making, expects shoppers will watch prices and make trade-offs during the holiday season, such as spending more on gifts and less in other areas like decor or food, Chief Commercial Officer Rick Gomez said on a call with reporters. The retailer has cut prices on 3,000 food and home essentials and tried to attract shoppers with low opening price points, such as $1 Christmas tree ornaments.

At Walmart, Rainey told CNBC the company has “been gaining [market] share among all income cohorts, but as we noted for several quarters, they’re more pronounced in the upper-income segment.”

For TJX, Herrman said the company’s focus on value is a competitive edge. He said on the company’s earnings call that it’s blend of “brand, fashion, quality and price sets us apart from many other retailers and has served us extremely well through many kinds of retail and economic environments over the course of our nearly 50-year history.”

In a research note, retail analyst and Telsey Advisory Group CEO Dana Telsey said TJX’s repeated earnings beats “highlight the strength of its value-focused proposition, which continues to resonate with consumers amid an increasingly price-sensitive environment.”

Customers of all incomes are coming to TJX’s stores and website, but lower-income shoppers drove sales growth in most of its geographies in its latest quarter, CFO John Klinger said on an earnings call.

While Walmart and TJX have weathered cracks in the economy better than many other retailers, they’re not immune to economic weakness.

Walmart’s Rainey said that despite its strong sales forecast for the year, the retailer has spotted “pockets of moderation” among low-income shoppers as they feel more pinched than other customers. On the company’s earnings call on Thursday, he referred to the sharp disparity in wage growth between high- and low-income U.S. consumers.

He also told CNBC that the retailer noticed a pullback by customers who stopped receiving Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, benefits during the government shutdown. But Rainey said, “that’s starting to rebound now that people are receiving those funds again.”

“We’re seeing the same things that that others are, and we’re keeping a watchful eye on it,” he said on the company’s earnings call. “But again, I think Walmart is better insulated than just about anybody.”

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Walmart logo is seen near the store in Austin, United States on Oct. 23, 2025.

Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty Images

When incoming Walmart CEO John Furner steps into the retailer’s top role, he will try to follow up a period of dramatic share growth that many of Walmart’s rivals have failed to match.

Walmart’s stock has more than quadrupled since outgoing CEO Doug McMillon began in the role in February 2014. Across nine of the 12 calendar years when McMillon has been Walmart’s leader, the company posted positive stock returns.

Among Walmart’s main rivals in the retail and grocery business, only Amazon and Costco have had better stock returns since McMillon took the job. Meanwhile, Walmart’s stock has outperformed those of competitors like Target, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Kroger and Albertsons.

McMillon will officially step down at the end of January, but will stay on as executive chairman and advisor. While Furner will face a challenge in replicating the company’s performance under his predecessor, he has been a key catalyst for the company’s success as CEO of its largest sector, Walmart’s U.S. business.

Along with huge gains on Wall Street, McMillon oversaw a significant period of growth for the nation’s largest grocer, which included sharp sales increases, wage hikes for hourly workers and transformation of the nation’s low-price leader into a major e-commerce player. He also steered the retailer through the tumult of a global pandemic, historic levels of inflation and higher tariffs.

Sales during McMillon’s first three years in the role were roughly flat — with revenues of $486 billion, $482 billion and $485 billion in the fiscal years ending January 2015, 2016 and 2017, respectively.

Yet those years were followed by steady growth, and those gains have accelerated since 2021, after the Covid pandemic pushed more people to shop online and inflation nudged even wealthier shoppers to seek value. Walmart posted annual revenue of about $681 billion in the fiscal year ended earlier this year, an approximately 40% jump from the company’s annual revenue the first year of McMillon’s tenure.

This year, Walmart is on track to post annual revenues of over $700 billion for the first time ever. Ironically, however, it is also expected to lose its crown as the largest retailer by annual revenue to its biggest e-commerce rival, Amazon.

Earlier this year, Amazon leapfrogged Walmart in quarterly sales for the first time. Compared to Walmart, it has a different mix to its business because of its massive cloud computing, advertising and seller services businesses.

How Walmart’s stock compares to its rivals

Stock gains by Amazon have outpaced Walmart’s during the years of McMillon’s tenure, with 1,225% share gains by the tech giant compared to a 312% increase by Walmart.

However, Walmart’s performance on Wall Street has far surpassed big-box retail competitor Target‘s across McMillon’s time as CEO. Shares of Target are up about 60% since February 2014, compared to Walmart’s 312% gains.

During the years of the Covid pandemic, Target’s steep share gains surpassed those of Walmart. Yet the Minneapolis-based cheap chic retailer’s annual sales have been roughly stagnant for about four years and dragged down its stock performance.

Like Walmart, Target is preparing for a leadership change in February. Last month, Target said Michael Fiddelke, its chief operating officer and former CFO, would succeed longtime CEO Brian Cornell.

Costco also stands out as a competitor that has posted steeper share gains than Walmart. Shares of the warehouse club retailer, which competes with both Walmart stores and those of its warehouse chain, Sam’s Club, have shot up by more than 700% during the years of McMillon’s tenure.

Walmart’s supermarket competitors — Kroger and Albertsons, in particular — have lagged behind that. Shares of Kroger, which includes about two dozen grocery chains including Fred Meyer and Ralphs, climbed 265% during McMillon’s tenure. Shares of Albertsons, which includes Safeway, Tom Thumb and other grocery chains, rose by only 16%.

Albertsons went public in 2020, which gave it less time for stock gains. For about two of those years, from roughly 2022 to 2024, Kroger and Albertsons also sought to merge their two companies into a larger grocer that could better compete with Walmart, Costco, Amazon and others. The deal was ultimately blocked by a U.S. judge, after the Federal Trade Commission sued to stop the merger.

Dollar stores also fell short of Walmart’s stock performance while McMillon was CEO. Dollar Tree and Dollar General, who compete with Walmart in offering groceries and other items at low prices, posted 104% and 85% share gains, respectively, compared to Walmart’s 312% increase.

Notably, both dollar store banners’ stocks outperformed Walmart’s during some of those years, yet have been struggling more recently.

Walmart’s stock was about flat Friday following the retirement announcement, and shares have climbed about 13% this year.

— CNBC’s Tom Rotunno contributed to this report.

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Trading cards of the game “Magic” are located in a shop where a “Magic” tournament is taking place.

Frank Rumpenhorst | picture alliance | Getty Images

As screentime soars and technology races ahead, a low-tech pastime is back in a big way: collecting trading cards.

The cardstock depicting everything from NFL standouts to Pokémon and even Taylor Swift is one of the hottest toy categories in stores this year. Big-box retailers are stocking up ahead of the holidays, anticipating that demand will extend beyond traditional toy buyers like children and collectors.

“We see trading cards being a hot gifting category for all ages that we will fuel with newness and with exclusive drops,” Rick Gomez, Target’s executive vice president and chief commercial officer, told CNBC. “We’re going to have new releases nearly every week during the holidays that’s going to drive demand. And these make for great gifts and great stocking stuffers.”

Strategic trading card sales — which exclude sports — are up 103% year-to-date through August, while non-strategic card sales, which tend to be collectible pop culture or sports cards, are up 48%, according to market research firm Circana.

Target’s trading card sales are up nearly 70% year-to-date, with annual revenue from the category expected to top $1 billion.

Sales on some online platforms are rising even faster. Walmart Marketplace reported a 200% jump in trading card sales from February 2024 to June 2025, with Pokémon sales up more than tenfold year-over-year during the same period, the company first told Axios. The retailer has even launched a new weekly influencer livestream series focused on sports collectibles.

Since 2021, strategic card sales have grown by $891 million, or 139%, to total $1.5 billion, according to Circana. Sales of non-strategic cards and collectible stickers climbed by $565 million, or 156%, to $925 million in the same period, Circana said.

Millennials and Gen Z customers have been crucial for growth, said Juli Lennett, vice president and industry advisor for Circana’s U.S. toys practice.

“Lots of adults are buying these because it brings them back to a time when they had no cares in the world,” Lennett said. “It’s an affordable luxury with the economy right now. Some couldn’t afford cards as kids and now they have their own money and no one’s there to say ‘no’.”

Some buyers also treat cards like alternative investments. Through August, the value of Pokémon cards has delivered a cumulative return of 3,821% since 2004, according to an index by analytics firm Card Ladder, the Wall Street Journal reported. To combat online resellers, many stores now limit purchases to two packs per customer.

While the trading card category has boomed this year, not everyone is convinced the segment will boost sales during the peak holiday shopping season. Within the past six months, 19% of adults said they purchased Pokémon cards for themselves, signaling they may not be buying them for others in the weeks ahead, according to Circana.

“There has been steady growth in the category, but a large chunk of buyers are purchasing for themselves. There isn’t as much gifting here as you see in other toys,” Lennett said.

Pokemon cards released in 1999

Yvonne Hemsey | Hulton Archive | Getty Images

A year-round rush

What trading cards may lack in holiday flair, they make up for in consistency.

Cards stand apart from most toy categories in two key ways: they are frequently self-purchased and not “super seasonal,” Lennett said.

“Cards sell just as well in March or July as they do in December,” she said. “That makes them very attractive to retailers trying to offset seasonal risk.”

Target, which often gets a bump from merchandise tied to holidays, has tried to capitalize on the year-round fervor for cards.

“We expanded our assortment. We increased the number of drops that we have. We put trading cards in a more prominent place in store, did bolder displays and the business has responded,” Gomez said. “We don’t see the business slowing and we see it continuing to grow in popularity.”

Pokémon remains the category’s top performer, with card sales topping $1 billion last year — it’s the first toy brand to hit that milestone in the U.S., according to Circana. Sports cards are also becoming more popular, particularly among teen boys, with NFL packs leading the charge.

“A lot of different people are coming in to buy. You have your adult collector who’s buying for themselves, but we also see a lot of families coming in with kids requesting them and asking their parents for trading cards,” Gomez said. “It’s a great gift for parents, for kids, especially if they know that they’re into sports or Pokémon.”

While contemporary releases are booming across people aged eight to 28, vintage cards — typically pre-1970s — haven’t connected as strongly with Gen Z and Gen Alpha collectors.

“The majority of my customers aren’t looking for vintage,” Matthew Winkelried, CEO of New York-based Bleecker Trading, told CNBC. “Younger people don’t want to dig through 1960s cards unless they see a Mickey Mantle or Hank Aaron. Plus, the scarcity and price of vintage cards make it a tough entry point.”

Topps trading cards are arranged for a photograph in Richmond, Virginia.

Jay Paul | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Changing customers

After a near-collapse in the 1990s due to overproduction, the trading card industry has rebounded. Growth has been particularly strong since the pandemic, propelled by a blend of nostalgia, community and, for some, investment potential.

For many, cards offer a sense of belonging — whether it’s exchanging cards or playing a game like Pokémon or Magic: The Gathering.

“You still have the game players, and that’s a really tight-knit community,” said Jason Howarth, senior vice president of marketing and athlete relations at Panini America, which supplies sports cards to retailers like Target and Walmart. “Among sports fans, there’s a huge sense of camaraderie around trading. And with Pokémon too, I’ve heard game nights still play a major role in keeping that ecosystem alive.”

For those looking to cards as a store of value, Pokémon cards often prove to be a stronger investment than their sports counterparts, said Winkelried of Bleecker Trading.

“Maybe a highly touted rookie joins the league, and you buy their card early hoping it’ll rise in value,” he said. “The value can change week to week. It’s volatile like a stock.”

He added: “Pokémon is like a commodity. Pikachu can’t tear an ACL or get a DUI. Supply is limited, so the market is more stable.”

Looking past the holidays, major retailers are focusing on building the category’s long-term future. Target is betting on exclusive sets, limited specialty drops and drawing a more diverse consumer base.

“We are looking at reaching not only breadth of age with trading cards, but also gender,” Gomez said.

That process is already underway. The WNBA is now one of the fastest-growing segments in sports cards, particularly among young girls.

And with the 2026 FIFA World Cup spanning the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, soccer is poised to surge next.

“Caitlin Clark, Paige Bueckers and Angel Reese have done wonders for the WNBA trading card business,” Howarth said. “Once it hits June, the U.S. marketplace is going to be taken over by soccer. Fans already know the global stars like Messi, but with the World Cup being held here, at least four or five players will skyrocket in popularity and get recognized.”

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