Robert J. Madden’s research points somewhere much older.

“We’re talking about a very deep cultural tradition,” he tells me, “probably one of the oldest continuous cultural practices in North America.”

Not decades old. Not centuries old. If his research is right, Native American gambling traditions stretch back 12,000 years, forming an unbroken line from Ice Age campsites to present-day casino floors. It lands at a moment when the legal structure governing tribal gaming is being tested in ways its authors never anticipated.

Tracing the origins of tribal gambling and Native American dice games

Madden, who is the author behind “Probability in the Pleistocene: Origins and Antiquity of Native American Dice, Games of Chance and Gambling” approached the problem with the instincts of a litigator. A former trial attorney turned archaeologist, evidence had to be consistent across time and strong enough to support inference without guesswork.

When we’re talking about Native Americans and games of chance and gambling, we’re talking about a very deep cultural tradition… probably one of the oldest continuous cultural practices in North America.

Robert J. Madden, University of Colorado PhD candidate

“You don’t have to make any huge leaps,” he says. “You can just kind of step, step, step… back into the past and follow it all the way back.”

Starting with well-documented historic Native dice, catalogued in detail by early ethnographers such as Stewart Culin, Madden created a kind of diagnostic checklist. If ancient artifacts matched those characteristics, they could reasonably be identified as dice used in games of chance. Applying that framework across the archaeological record, he identified hundreds of sites where the same forms appeared again and again, stretching further back in time than anyone had previously demonstrated.

The deeper he looked, the more the gaps disappeared. What had once seemed like isolated evidence began to look like continuity.

How the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act shapes modern tribal casinos

Modern tribal gaming rests on a framework that is comparatively recent. The Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA), passed in 1988, created the structure that still governs casinos on tribal land. It was designed as a compromise between the competing interests of tribal sovereignty, state authority, and federal oversight, and it remains exactly that.

Congress set out clear goals that gaming should support “tribal economic development, self-sufficiency, and strong tribal governments,” while remaining regulated and protected from corruption.

Archaeologist Robert J. Madden studies ancient dice artifacts as part of his research into early Native American gaming traditions. Credit: Robert Madden

At the same time, the law formalized how power is shared. Tribes retain the right to regulate certain forms of gaming on their lands, but large-scale casino operations require negotiated agreements with states and federal approval.

The result is a system built around jurisdiction and who controls what, where, and under which conditions. The age-old system has shaped an industry worth billions, but it is rooted in a definition of gaming that reflects the late 20th century, not deep history.

Ancient Native American gambling as a social gathering and cultural practice

Historical accounts of Native dice games describe something vivid and communal.

“It was a real raucous affair,” the University of Colorado PhD candidate says. “You’d have… people all around gathered, very loud… and all kinds of side bets going on.”

Players threw multiple dice at once, while referees announced results and scorekeepers tracked progress with counting sticks. Around them, spectators gathered in large numbers, betting on outcomes and engaging with one another. These were social environments, places where strangers became acquaintances and communities intersected.

“It brought people together that didn’t know each other well,” he says, creating opportunities to “trade, swap information, all kinds of things.”

Archaeologically, that social function leaves traces. The oldest dice often appear at sites long suspected to be gathering points, which were places where different groups converged, perhaps seasonally, to interact. The presence of gaming artifacts reinforces that interpretation, suggesting that games of chance were part of the mechanism that made those convocations work.

Prediction markets vs tribal gaming

The legal framework built in 1988 is now facing pressure from technologies that do not fit neatly inside it.

Prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, allow users to trade on real-world outcomes while presenting themselves as financial exchanges. This has become the center of a legal dispute being waged across the country. If these platforms are treated as financial instruments rather than gambling, they may fall outside IGRA altogether.

Tribal leaders argue that this would sidestep the system of tribal-state compacts and undermine regulatory authority on tribal lands. When we spoke to tribal gaming law professors Steven Light and Kathryn Rand this week, they warned that such platforms could strip “governmental authority from both states and tribes,” shifting control away from the framework established by the IGRA.

“These so-called prediction markets are an attempt to bypass tribal authority and recast gambling as a financial product. We will not allow that. We will stand united to defend tribal sovereignty and the integrity of Indian gaming,” IGA Chairman David Z. Bean said at last week’s Indian Gaming Association Tradeshow and Convention.

The argument is already moving through the courts. Companies like Kalshi have claimed that geography should not determine jurisdiction in the same way it does under IGRA, challenging the idea that betting activity must be tied to physical location. This runs directly against the territorial logic of the law, which is built around gaming “on Indian lands.”

At the same time, partnerships between prediction platforms and major sports leagues are accelerating the issue, pushing these questions into mainstream markets rather than niche corners of finance.

How Native American dice are changing the narrative around tribal gambling

For years, Native American groups have sometimes been portrayed as late entrants to a pre-existing gambling economy or “Johnny-come-latelies,” as Madden puts it, stepping into a profitable sector once legal pathways opened.

His research inverts this idea, suggesting that Native gaming traditions long predate the systems they are now regulated within. Dice games tied to chance and wagering appear long before European contact and continue through the historic period without interruption. That continuity makes it difficult to describe tribal gaming as a recent development.

“Is this just the same as… opening up an auto repair shop?” Madden asks. “Or is this something more… a deeply rooted cultural activity?”

Modern regulatory frameworks tend to treat tribal casinos primarily as economic enterprises. Acknowledging them as expressions of a long-standing cultural practice could fundamentally change how those frameworks are interpreted, or at least how they are debated.

When history enters the courtroom

Legal disputes over tribal gaming already draw on history, particularly when questions of sovereignty and continuity arise.

“I do know that courts… have considered the extent to which this is a long-standing practice,” Madden says.

Historical records from the period of European contact, combined with archaeological evidence from the last few thousand years, provided a partial picture. Madden’s work pushes that timeline back dramatically, giving a snapshot of a much deeper foundation for those claims.

IGRA itself recognizes tribal authority over certain forms of gaming, especially traditional and social games, while imposing layered regulation on others, which assumes a distinction between cultural practice and commercial activity.

“I think it’s possible” the findings could influence future cases, he says, though he is careful not to overstate the point. At the very least, it “puts it in a much deeper… light” than ever before.

Beyond law and policy, the research appears to carry a quieter but equally significant implication. It suggests that ancient Native Americans were engaging with the underlying principles of probability and randomness far earlier than is often acknowledged.

For Madden, that recognition matters.

“Native American… intellectual accomplishments don’t typically go together in the same sentence,” he says. “I hope this is something that Native American people can take pride in.”

A living system under pressure

Modern tribal casinos generate significant revenue and fund services in many communities, with the National Indian Gaming Commission suggesting Gross Gaming Revenues (GGR) of $43.9 billion for fiscal year 2024. They operate within a regulatory system built in 1988, one that continues to evolve under legal and technological pressure.

Prediction markets, digital platforms, and changing interpretations of jurisdiction are testing that system from multiple angles. Meanwhile, the historical record behind the activity itself is becoming clearer and more difficult to ignore.

If gaming is not just an industry but the latest expression of a cultural practice that has endured for 12,000 years, then the conversation around it becomes harder to simplify. The dice, in a sense, never stopped rolling.

Featured image: Robert J. Madden

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When Professor Steven Light said that in a recent ReadWrite interview, it landed with weight. He was sitting next to fellow Professor Kathryn Rand, his longtime collaborator on tribal gaming law and co-author of Indian Gaming Law and Policy, and the two were talking through a change that feels both sudden and far-reaching. Prediction markets, once a niche corner of finance, are now pushing into space long defined by tribal and state gaming systems.

The platforms allow users to trade contracts on the outcome of real-world events, from sports games to elections, in ways that can closely resemble traditional betting. However, they are forcing new questions about sovereignty, regulation, and who really controls the rules.

This tension was hard to miss at last week’s Indian Gaming Association Tradeshow and Convention. Tribal leaders, regulators, and industry voices gathered as legal disputes continue to intensify and uncertainty grow. 

“Today, our Board took decisive action to protect what generations before us fought to build,” IGA Chairman David Z. Bean said at the conference. “These so-called prediction markets are an attempt to bypass tribal authority and recast gambling as a financial product. We will not allow that. We will stand united to defend tribal sovereignty and the integrity of Indian gaming.”

The expansion of federally regulated event-based trading platforms has become one of the most urgent issues in Indian Country. Prediction markets have been seen to bypass the very frameworks tribes have spent decades building and defending, including IGRA compacts and recent enforcement wins against sweepstakes-style operators.

Prediction markets present a growing challenge to established Indian tribal gaming frameworks

For Rand, who is a visiting professor at Boyd Law, the concern is immediate. “I think that it’s fair to say that prediction markets are a threat to tribal gaming,” she said. This ties directly back to the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act, the 1988 law that shaped modern tribal gaming. IGRA depends on a shared system where states and tribes negotiate compacts that govern operations and revenue.

If we accept that prediction markets are effectively gaming, then they operate in a way to remove that governmental authority from both states and tribes.

Professor Kathryn Rand

In this case, prediction markets may be stepping outside that system altogether.

“If we accept that prediction markets are effectively gaming,” Rand explained, “then they operate in a way to remove that governmental authority from both states and tribes.” In practical terms, federally regulated platforms, primarily overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), could offer products that look and feel like sports betting without following the same rules or contributing to the same revenue structures.

From the CFTC’s perspective, prediction markets fall under existing derivatives law, offering a regulated alternative to offshore betting and potentially improving market efficiency by aggregating information about future events. It may help explain why federal authorities have been more willing to assert jurisdiction, even as states and tribes push back.

And we’ve seen this playing out in recent days, having reported that the CFTC and the Department of Justice are taking legal action against states such as Arizona, Illinois, and Connecticut over attempts to limit prediction markets. This indicates a more aggressive federal stance in an area traditionally controlled at the state and tribal level.

Light sees this as a potential crack in what he and Rand have long called the “casino compromise,” the balance IGRA created among tribal sovereignty, state oversight, and commercial interests. “That balance has largely held over the last several decades,” he said. “We don’t want to be apocalyptic about it, but it is true that they are a current and imminent and real threat that tribes see to that balance.”

The stakes extend well beyond legal theory. Tribal gaming remains the main economic engine for many tribal governments, supporting essential services like healthcare, housing, education, and public safety. As Rand put it, “most tribes have gaming as their primary economic driver and job creation in a relatively constrained economy.”

Economic impact and rising federal pressure

The financial importance of that system is clear in places like Arizona. Tribal casinos there contributed $33.4 million to the state’s Benefits Fund in just the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, which is an 8.3% increase from the previous year. These funds flow into education, emergency services, wildlife conservation, tourism, and programs addressing problem gambling.

Since 2004, total contributions from tribal gaming in Arizona have reached about $2.5 billion, showcasing a long-standing partnership between tribes and the state.

The vast majority of tribes won’t be able to simply pivot to another equally effective route of economic development.

Professor Kathryn Rand

In this context, the timing of federal action stands out. Just days after Arizona reported its latest contribution figures, it became a target in a federal legal challenge tied to prediction markets. For many tribal stakeholders, the overlap reinforces a growing concern that a stable, heavily regulated system is now being challenged by a newer market operating under a different set of rules.

“The vast majority of tribes won’t be able to simply pivot to another equally effective route of economic development,” Rand warned. If prediction markets draw users away without sharing in revenue obligations, the long-term consequences could be significant.

The ongoing discussion centers on whether prediction markets count as gambling.

“Public policy to some extent drives how we define what is gambling,” said Rand. If these platforms fall outside that definition, they could avoid safeguards designed to ensure fairness, prevent underage participation, and limit problem gambling.

From a user’s perspective, though, the difference is not always obvious. Contracts tied to sports, elections, or entertainment outcomes often behave in ways that are “very similar, if not identical, to sports betting,” Rand noted.

Light takes that idea further, pointing to how quickly the scope is expanding. “What this is doing is opening up a new space,” he said, where people can wager on everything from awards shows to political events—areas historically kept outside regulated gaming.

Prediction market regulation struggles to keep pace with ongoing change

This is not the first disruption tribal gaming has faced. In recent years, tribes have successfully pushed back against sweepstakes-style operators that tried to exploit gray areas, which often relied on alliances between tribes, states, and commercial operators, with a shared focus on consumer protection.

Rand believes a similar approach could emerge again. “This is an opportunity for states and tribes… to find common ground,” she said, especially around fairness and consumer safety.

But prediction markets are a tougher challenge because they come with federal backing, at least in part, complicating enforcement and raises deeper jurisdictional questions.

“It’s incredibly difficult to legislate ahead of technology,” Light said, comparing the moment to earlier debates over online poker and digital gaming. Innovation has always moved faster than regulation, but the current pace feels different.

“The suddenness with which prediction markets have come on in the last year or so,” Light noted, along with strong adoption among younger users, has created a situation where regulators are struggling to catch up.

For tribes already working through the shift to mobile wagering and iGaming, that creates another layer of uncertainty. “Prediction markets arguably are pulling the rug out from under that process,” Rand said. Years of negotiation and investment tied to mobile betting frameworks could be undermined by a parallel system that operates outside those agreements.

The dispute is now unfolding on several fronts. Tribal organizations have filed amicus briefs against platforms like Kalshi. Lawmakers are introducing bipartisan bills to clarify regulatory authority. Members of Congress are also questioning whether current offerings align with federal law, even as enforcement remains uneven.

For Light, the issue reaches beyond gaming into the wider balance of power in the U.S. system. “This aligns with… an assertion of federal power,” he said, describing recent actions as “new ground” in how authority is divided among federal, state, and tribal governments.

Rand shares that concern and questions the policy rationale behind the federal approach. “There doesn’t seem to be a clear public policy supporting the federal position on this,” she said, especially when compared with the established goals behind tribal and state gaming systems.

Those goals—economic development, consumer protection, and sovereignty—remain central. Tribal gaming has long been a foundation for self-determination and governance.

“If we have a threat to that source of revenue, that’s significant,” Rand said. The implications go beyond dollars to control itself. If prediction markets can operate outside tribal jurisdiction, it raises broader questions about what comes next.

“That also suggests that there could be other activities… that tribes simply would not have control over,” she added.

Looking ahead, both Rand and Light expect the conflict to intensify. Legal battles are likely to continue, and the issue could ultimately reach the Supreme Court as competing interpretations of federal authority collide.

For now, prediction markets are growing quickly, federal agencies are asserting their role, and tribes are weighing how best to respond.

That aligns with the current administration’s general approach to federalism today, which is almost turning the last couple of decades of federalism on its head, where conservatism (small ‘c’) in the US and Republicans (big ‘R’) in the US were oriented toward pushing power back to the states and therefore often to tribes as well to their benefit.

Professor Steven Light

Light’s opening comment captures the moment. What’s happening appears to be a turning point that could redefine how tribal sovereignty operates in a digital economy where even the definition of gaming is in flux.

And as both scholars make clear, the stakes are real. They touch on economic stability, legal authority, and the future of self-determination for tribal nations.

Featured images: via LinkedIn

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The tribes behind the lawsuit are described as three “Southern Pomo Indian tribes with strong historical connections to Sonoma County, California.” They challenged how the Interior Department and the Bureau of Indian Affairs handled the approval process, arguing the government rushed to take land into trust for the casino project.

The Southern Pomo Indian tribe is a key part of the Federated Indians of Graton Rancheria, which already operates a major casino nearby and has been among those pushing back against the Koi Nation’s plans as construction edges closer.

Why the judge paused the Northern California casino tribal case

Nichols said it made more sense to wait, pointing to ongoing appeals in related cases in Northern California that could directly shape what happens next. One of those cases already delivered a significant setback for the federal government, when a judge vacated the Interior Department’s approval of the project.

In light of that ruling, the tribes indicated they may drop their lawsuit altogether if the appeals process leaves that decision intact. 

The federal government had argued against the delay, saying the request came too early and that a California court should decide whether to pause the case. Nichols disagreed, concluding that waiting would avoid duplicating legal work and potentially conflicting outcomes.

He pointed out that the Ninth Circuit’s upcoming decisions could influence nearly every major issue in the case, from whether it belongs in California to how the legal claims should ultimately be resolved. He also noted the government itself had recently asked for, and received, a similar pause in a related California case.

Nichols echoed that court’s reasoning, writing that “a stay would significantly advance the orderly course of justice.”

The dispute unfolds alongside political scrutiny over casino expansion in California. In July 2025, Governor Gavin Newsom faced criticism tied to tribal gaming decisions and campaign donations.

For now, the case remains frozen. Both sides must file joint updates every 90 days and outline next steps once the Ninth Circuit finishes weighing the related appeals. Until then, the legal fight over the casino project is effectively on hold.

Featured image: Koi Nation / Federated Indians of Graton Rancheria

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36-year-old Michael Anthony Houser has been sentenced to a total of 106 months in prison for one count of theft concerning programs receiving federal funds and one count of tax fraud. In addition, he must pay $17,337,949.50 in restitution to the Muscogee (Creek) Nation and $8,205,834.00 in restitution to the Internal Revenue Service.

Houser pled guilty to the charges levelled by the United States Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Oklahoma on February 20, 2025. An investigation by the FBI has revealed that the Oklahoma resident embezzled and obtained fraud property while working as a manager for the Muscogee Nation Gaming Enterprises.

“I am proud of the work conducted by our special agents in this case to ensure that justice was brought to the Muscogee (Creek) Nation,” said Special Agent in Charge Kyle Smith at the Oklahoma Field Office. “The US Secret Service at its origin was created to identify, monitor and bring to justice those who seek to defraud.

“Protecting our communities here in Oklahoma is a mission we take very seriously, and I am grateful for the strong partnership we share with the Internal Revenue Service Criminal Investigation as we work together to bring fraudsters to justice.”

From theft to tax fraud

In doing so, Houser went on to embezzle $24,907,436.07 between July 2016 and February 2024, made up of funds owned by and under the control of the Muscogee (Creek) Nation and its agencies, all of which are program that were receiving federal funds. This led to the theft charge.

In addition, Houser didn’t disclose the stolen funds as taxable income, leading to the second charge of tax fraud. In the 2022 tax year, Houser failed to report $7,851,027,28 in income, with his fraudulent tax filings amounting to $8,205,834.00.

“Stealing from the community you are entrusted to serve is a serious betrayal,” said Christopher J. Altemus Jr., Special Agent in Charge at the IRS Criminal Investigation Dallas Field Office. “Mr. Houser’s crimes harmed the Muscogee (Creek) Nation and undermined trust in public and tribal institutions.

“By stealing from the Muscogee (Creek) Nation and falsifying his tax return, Mr. Houser not only defrauded his employer but also the American public. The women and men of IRS-CI are proud to have worked alongside the U.S. Secret Service and the US Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Oklahoma to uncover this fraud and hold Mr Houser accountable for his crimes.”

Being cash-based business, tribal gambling companies have formed the backdrop of tax fraud before, as with this case with the Mashpee tribe.

Featured image: Wikimedia Commons, licensed under CC BY 2.5

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After the 32-year-old robbed a bank in Shoreline, Washington, in August, he was arrested by the police. They were already looking for him concerning a few other casino robberies.

At the start of the month, Gonzalez walked into Quil Ceda Creek Casino on the Tulalip Indian Reservation and brandished a silver handgun towards the staff.

Allegedly, he told the cashier that he would “shoot the guards” unless money was handed over to him. Despite this, the cashier refused to do so, and Gonzalez left abruptly.

Just two days later, the Mexican attempted to rob another casino, and this time he came away with $18K from the Silver Reef Casino, located on the Lummi Nation Indian Reservation.

Edgar Gonzalez Barragan is suspected of being behind more crimes

Three surveillance images of an armed robbery suspect at Little Creek Casino. Credit: Mason County Sheriff’s Office

Just under a week after his $18k haul from the Silver Reef Casino, Gonzalez tried his luck once more, this time at Little Creek Casino in Kamilche, Washington.

“On 8/9/2025 at about 11:24 AM, a suspect entered the casino’s supervisor station, displayed a handgun, and demanded money. When told there was no money in the till, he fled on foot,” said the sheriff’s office in a statement following the incident.

Later that same day, Gonzalez managed to steal a hydraulic rescue tool worth $12k from a fire engine. The incident was reported by the Riverside Fire Authority, and these tools can help criminals easily break ATM machines.

After stealing just $1,500 from the US Bank in Shoreline, the 32-year-old was stopped by the police.

Furthermore, Federal agents went on to raid his home, finding clothes that he wore the same day of the Little Creek robbery earlier that month.

Elsewhere, his three phones displayed location data which placed him at the scene of the crime for all robberies and attempted robberies.

Featured image: Centralia, WA Police Department via Facebook

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According to InGame, a letter from the Yuhaaviatam of San Manuel Nation was sent to various California tribal leaders at an unknown date, seeming to criticize the ‘YES Pledge’ for expanding gambling under the authority of Sports Betting Alliance (SBA) Tribal Advisory Council members.

The correspondence argues that “the future of tribal government gaming in California is at risk” and claims that the proposed commercial gambling expansion “will provide large profits for them, while undermining the fabric of Indian Gaming in California.”

Opinions are split on the issue, as Jeff Grubbe, the current SBA tribal advisor and former Agua Caliente Band of Cahuilla Indians chair, responded to the letter publicly on LinkedIn at the end of September. He claimed that it relies on “opinions, assumptions, and speculative outcomes – not verifiable facts.”

What is the YES Pledge?

Dividing those in the community, the YES Pledge first began circulating in September. It aims to encourage tribes to “commit to working together to secure voter or legislative approval of a tribally governed framework for online sports betting.”

However, it has failed to gain the support of the biggest tribal association in the state, the California Nations Indian Gaming Association (CNIGA), of which San Manuel is a member. Betting giants including Bet365, BetMGM, DraftKings, Fanatics Sportsbook, and FanDuel are all members of the SBA.

This issue is one of many at stake for tribes in California, as the news came earlier this week that California tribes have been blocked from suing cardrooms over exclusive gambling rights. The YES Pledge is also part of the bigger picture around the competition for controlling sports betting across the state, which some tribes argue also encroaches on their exclusivity, as determined by the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA) and compacts.

Featured image: Unsplash

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