Washington and Beijing agreed to a trade framework in June that restored a fragile truce, but with many details still unclear, traders and investors on both sides of the Pacific are watching to see if it will unravel or lead to a lasting detente.

On Monday, President Donald Trump began notifying trade partners of sharply higher US tariffs from August 1, after he delayed all but 10% of his April duties on most countries to give them time to strike deals with the world’s largest economy.

President Donald Trump attends a bilateral meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping during the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, on June 29, 2019. REUTERS

China, initially singled out with tariffs exceeding 100%, has until August 12 to reach an agreement with the White House to keep Trump from reinstating additional import curbs imposed during tit-for-tat tariff exchanges in April and May.

“One conclusion is abundantly clear: dialogue and cooperation are the only correct path,” the official People’s Daily said in a commentary, referring to the exchanges in the current round of China-US trade tension.

The article was signed “Zhong Sheng”, or “Voice of China”, a term the paper uses to express views on foreign policy.

Reiterating Beijing’s view that Trump’s tariffs amount to “bullying”, the paper added, “Practice has proven that only by firmly upholding principled positions can one truly safeguard one’s legitimate rights and interests.”

The remarks set the stage for another round of tariff war should Trump stick to what the ruling Communist Party’s official daily said was “a so-called ‘final deadline.’”

Shipping containers are stacked at a port in Shanghai on June 9, 2025. AFP via Getty Images

An American flag flies in front of shipping containers stacked on a container ship (C) at the Port of Los Angeles on June 25, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. Getty Images

The average US tariff on Chinese exports now stands at 51.1%, while the average Chinese duty on US goods is 32.6%, with both sides covering all their trade, the Peterson Institute for International Economics said.

The paper also took a swipe at regional economies that are considering striking tariff reduction deals with the United States that cut China out of their supply chains.

Last week, Vietnam secured a tariff reduction to 20% from 46% with a deal for goods “transshipped” through it, typically originating from China, to be subjected to a levy of 40%.

“China firmly opposes any side striking a deal that sacrifices Chinese interests in exchange for tariff concessions,” the paper said.

“If such a situation arises, China will not accept it and will respond resolutely to protect its legitimate interests.”

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President Trump’s China tariffs are threatening Christmas.

Toy makers, children’s shops and specialty retailers are pausing orders for the winter holidays as the import taxes cascade through supply chains. Factories in China produce nearly 80 percent of all toys and 90 percent of Christmas goods sold in America.

The production of toys, Christmas trees and decorations is usually in full swing by now. It takes four to five months to manufacture, package and ship products to the United States.

Mr. Trump’s 145 percent tariffs have caused a drastic markup in costs for American companies. Most of the entrepreneurs that have shared their plans with The New York Times have not yet canceled their orders. They hope that the president will back away from the tariff brinkmanship.

But the alarm in the industry is palpable, with the companies predicting product shortages and higher prices. Some business owners, citing how crucial holiday sales are to their bottom lines, are consulting bankruptcy lawyers.

“We have a frozen supply chain that is putting Christmas at risk,” said Greg Ahearn, chief executive of the Toy Association, a U.S. industry group representing 850 toy manufacturers. “If we don’t start production soon, there’s a high probability of a toy shortage this holiday season.”

For America’s Christmas industry, Chinese manufacturing is unmatched in its production speed and capability. Toy makers overhaul large portions of their product lines every year to adapt to the changing preferences of children. From materials to machinery, China’s factories are one-stop shops for importers.

Kara Dyer, founder of Storytime Toys, a maker of children’s books with playset puzzles, usually places a big holiday order with her Chinese factory in the first two weeks of April to have enough inventory by mid-July. The Christmas holidays account for about two-thirds of her annual revenue.

Ms. Dyer placed a small order of $30,000 worth of products before the latest tariffs, never expecting they would surge to such high levels. That shipment is en route to the United States. When it arrives, she said, she expects to owe $45,000 in tariffs. The shipment will provide the company with enough inventory for a few months, and she said she would probably raise prices at least 20 percent to cover the tariff costs. But she is waiting to make a big holiday purchase.

“I’m going to hold out hope for another two weeks that the tariffs will be removed and I’ll be able to place the order,” she said. “But if not, I will have to put my business on pause. I will definitely not place an order if the tariffs are in effect. It wouldn’t make any sense.”

In a Toy Association survey of 410 toy manufacturers with annual sales of less than $100 million, more than 60 percent said they had canceled orders, and around 50 percent said they would go out of business within weeks or months if the tariffs remained.

At West Side Kids in New York City, the shop’s owner, Jennifer Bergman, 58, is concerned that she may not have any toys to sell at Christmas. And the toys she can get her hands on could cost twice what they did last year, which would crimp her sales during the most important time of the year.

Toy companies are already marking up prices 10 to 20 percent, said Ms. Bergman, whose mother opened the store 43 years ago. She said that she would try to buy as much as she could now, but that the shortages were already starting. She had placed a large order of scooters to arrive for the summer. But the importer rerouted the shipment to Canada because it did not want to pay the tariff. She was told that she would get only a portion of her order.

If the tariffs remain, Christmas will be like “something we’ve never experienced before,” Ms. Bergman said. People will be standing in line to buy things that cost twice or three times as much as before, she said. Her business was already under pressure from competition by Amazon, but she fears that the tariffs will deliver a final blow.

“I don’t think I will be in business for Christmas,” said Ms. Bergman, who added that she was consulting a bankruptcy lawyer.

Nick Mowbray and his brother, Mat, founded Zuru Group in China, making an assortment of plastic dart “blasters,” water balloon accessories and bubble guns that are sold at Walmart and Target. He said retailers were not placing holiday orders. Zuru has cut its marketing budget for the holiday season in half, to $60 million, because it expects to be selling fewer products.

Mr. Mowbray, a native of New Zealand, said everything was in “a holding pattern.” If the tariffs remain at 145 percent, he expects prices for consumers to increase around 50 to 100 percent.

“That will be unaffordable for a lot of families,” he said.

Mr. Trump has in recent days struck a conciliatory tone toward China and the tariffs, fueling some hope among business owners that he may exempt industries that do not pose a national security threat.

Mr. Ahearn from the Toy Association said he was in Washington last week to lobby for a 24-month reprieve, which could give companies time to find ways to make their products in the United States.

But even if Mr. Trump grants importers temporary relief, significant disruptions will occur as companies rush to fulfill orders. Shipping costs are expected to surge, similar to the frenzy during the Covid pandemic, when a shortage of shipping containers led in some cases to a tenfold increase in freight prices.

Christmas is the busiest time of year for Aldik Home, a home goods store in Los Angeles. It generates more than two-thirds of its annual sales in the final three months of the year, selling artificial Christmas trees, wreaths, ornaments, lights and other decorations.

Larry Gold, the store’s owner, said he had worked with a Chinese factory for many years to design Christmas trees. He places the order in January for shipment in June or July. This year, he planned to send seven 40-foot containers from China loaded with $600,000 worth of trees. The current tariff would require him to pay nearly $1 million at once.

“Right now, we’ve asked them to hold up and wait,” Mr. Gold, 72, said.

Last year, the store sold seven-and-a-half-foot trees for about $1,000. Mr. Gold said he would have no choice but to pass on the tariff cost to shoppers, which would put the price of that same tree at more than $2,000. He said that price would in effect “kill the product.”

“I can’t believe anybody in this country who is buying trees from China will pay the 145 percent duty, because they’ll never sell them,” Mr. Gold said.

At this rate, he said, he will not bring in the trees, and his store, which has been open for decades, will have nothing to sell during the most crucial period of the year. He said he would probably be forced to close, costing his 40 employees their jobs.

“There won’t be a Christmas industry here,” Mr. Gold said. “The product all comes from China.”

Aaron Krolik contributed reporting from New York.

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When President Trump first pushed tariffs on China in 2018, Apple began moving more production of iPads and AirPods to Vietnam and iPhones to India.

But with Mr. Trump’s return to the White House, that strategy may have backfired for the world’s most valuable publicly traded company.

On Wednesday, Mr. Trump said that the United States would put tariffs of 46 percent on Vietnam and 26 percent on India. The White House has said the tariffs are effective immediately, but some trade experts consider them to be preliminary and designed to be a starting point for negotiations to reduce overseas tariffs.

The proposed tariffs threaten to compound the pressure on Apple’s business. The company is already dealing with 20 percent tariffs on products imported from China, where Apple makes about 90 percent of the iPhones it sells around the world. Mr. Trump said that the rate would go to 34 percent under his new tariff plan.

An Apple spokesman declined to comment.

The new levies are part of Mr. Trump’s efforts to remake world trade with tariffs on every country that imposes fees on American exports. U.S. trade officials estimate that India has a tariff rate of 13.5 percent on U.S. goods, with a 39 percent tariff on agricultural products. Vietnam has a tariff rate of 8.1 percent on U.S. goods, with a 17.1 percent tariff on agricultural products.

But during a news conference at the White House, Mr. Trump said the combination of tariffs, currency manipulation and trade barriers had a much more significant impact.

The costs of “reciprocal tariffs,” as Mr. Trump calls them, could put Apple’s business in a jam. The iPhones, iPads and Apple Watches that the company sells deliver three-quarters of its nearly $400 billion in annual revenue. With Mr. Trump saying he won’t allow products to be exempted from tariffs, Apple will have to either pay those fees, which will reduce its profit, or indirectly pass those added costs on to customers by raising prices.

The tariffs on iPhones and other devices imported from China will increase Apple’s annual costs by $8.5 billion, without any relief from the Trump administration, according to Morgan Stanley. That would reduce the company’s profit next year by $0.52 per share, or about $7.85 billion. That would be a roughly 7 percent hit on next year’s profits.

Apple’s stock fell 4.7 percent in aftermarket trading following Mr. Trump’s remarks.

“Apple will take these new tariff numbers and put them in models they have built and know within hours how big of a problem they have,” said Anna-Katrina Shedletsky, the founder of Instrumental, a Bay Area company that uses artificial intelligence to improve manufacturing performance. She previously worked at Apple.

After Mr. Trump took office, Tim Cook, Apple’s chief executive, went to the White House and promised that Apple would invest hundreds of billions of dollars in the United States. In February, Apple followed through on that promise by pledging to invest $500 billion in the country, with much of the money already part of its spending plans.

During the previous Trump administration, Mr. Cook’s work to build a relationship with Mr. Trump helped Apple avoid tariffs on most of its products. U.S. trade officials in the previous Trump administration didn’t put tariffs on iPhones, and they removed tariffs from the Apple Watch.

In 2019, Mr. Trump toured an Apple plant in Texas that made desktop computers. Mr. Cook stood beside Mr. Trump as the president took credit for the plant, which had been making computers since 2013.

In the years since then, Apple hasn’t moved production of a single major product to the United States. Instead, it embarked on an effort to diversify beyond China.

In 2017, as Mr. Trump started in office, Apple began setting up assembly lines for iPhones in India. It took five years for it to train workers and build the infrastructure to make its newest iPhones in the country. It is in the process of increasing production there, with hopes the country’s factories manufacture about 25 percent of the 200 million iPhones that it sells annually.

The company also began shifting production of AirPods, iPads and MacBooks to Vietnam. The country became a destination for Apple and others after Covid-19 shut down factories in China in 2020, and Vietnam’s factories accounted for more than 10 percent of the top 200 suppliers that the company had in 2023.

Vietnam was an appealing location because of its proximity to China. India was alluring because Apple wanted to boost sales of iPhones in the country, which is the world’s second largest smartphone market.

But Apple has struggled in the past with U.S. production. The Texas plant that made Macs had problems as some workers walked off the job after their shift but before their replacements had arrived, forcing the company to shut down the assembly line. It also struggled to find suppliers that could make components it needed like a custom screw.

Mr. Cook has said that the United States doesn’t have enough skilled manufacturing workers to compete with China. At a conference in late 2017, he said that China was one of the few places where Apple could reliably find people capable of running the state-of-the-art machines that make its products.

“In the U.S., you could have a meeting of tooling engineers, and I’m not sure we could fill the room,” Mr. Cook said. “In China, you could fill multiple football fields.”

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Nebraska-based Dunkin’ stores in Omaha, Lincoln and Grand Island all had no doughnuts in their cases on Thursday and Friday.

Businesses put up signs on their doors and drive-thru kiosks informing customers that the pastries were unavailable “due to a manufacturing error.”

Dunkin’ customers were stunned when stores didn’t have any donuts. AP

Some locations did offer “Munchkins,” or doughnut holes, on Friday.

Tyler Raikar, of Omaha, stopped by a Dunkin’ in west Omaha early Friday after an overnight shift as a phlebotomist, seeking coffee and a chocolate cake doughnut.

“What? No doughnuts!” she exclaimed when told the location had none. “That’s tragic!”

The trip wasn’t a total loss, she said, as she was more interested in the coffee.

Still, she was a little disappointed that she couldn’t get a doughnut.

“Hopefully they have them soon,” she said.

Employees put up signs on doors and drive-thru kiosks telling customers that pastries were unavailable. AP

Throughout Albuquerque, New Mexico, and the surrounding suburbs, store after store confirmed there’s a doughnut drought.

Some employees chalked it up to a supply chain issue and others said simply that delivery trucks had been arriving without the cargo that the chain is most famous for.

Employees said they hoped stocks would be replenished by next week.

A manager at the west Omaha Dunkin’ location said Friday that she could not give more information on the cause of the shortage, citing orders from Dunkin’s corporate headquarters.

The manager, who did not give her name, said the shortage was a national problem.

But checks of locations in other regions, including St. Joseph, Missouri, and Boston — where Dunkin’ has a near cult-like following — found no shortage of the sweet treats.

A Dunkin’ manager in Omaha said the shortage is a nationwide problem. AP

Dunkin’ is one of the world’s largest coffee and doughnut brands, with more than 13,200 restaurants

The company, which was founded in Massachusetts in 1950, was purchased for $11.3 billion in 2020 by Atlanta private equity firm Inspire Brands, which also owns Arby’s and Buffalo Wild Wings.

Jack D’Amato, a spokesperson for Inspire Brands, said there was an issue with doughnuts from a single supplier that impacted stores in Nebraska and some other states, although he did not name the other states.

About 4 percent of Dunkin’s U.S. stores were impacted, he said.

Dunkin’ has more than 9,500 stores nationwide.

D’Amato said the company was still looking into what the issue was and exactly how many stores were affected. But he said the company has already begun restocking some affected stores.

The shortage didn’t impact places like Boston – where the company has a major following. AP

Previously known as Dunkin’ Donuts, the company announced in 2018 that it was dropping “Donuts” from its name as part of a rebranding effort to increase focus on its coffee and other drinks, which made up of a majority of its sales.

Phone and email messages to Bryce Bares, who owns several Dunkin’ franchises in Nebraska, were not immediately returned.

Bares told the Omaha World-Herald that some Dunkin’ stores received products from suppliers that were not up to standard and that he would not serve them to customers.

The business owner told the newspaper that the supply partners had corrected the problem and that his Nebraska locations should be offering doughnuts again soon.

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There’s good news in the housing market to close out 2024: there’s a lot more supply. The bad news: a lot of that supply is stale, sitting unsold for much longer than usual. 

Active listings in November were 12.1% higher than they were in November 2023 and hit the highest level since 2020, according to a new report from Redfin.

More than half of those homes (54.5%), however, had sat on the market for at least 60 days without going under a contract of sale. That is the highest share for any November since 2019 and is up nearly 50% from the year before, according to the report.

The typical home that did go under contract did so in 43 days, according to Redfin, the slowest November pace since 2019.

“A lot of listings on the market are either stale or uninhabitable. There’s a lot of inventory, but it doesn’t feel like enough,” said Redfin agent Meme Loggins, who was quoted in the report. “I explain to sellers that their house will sit on the market if it’s not fairly priced. Homes that are priced well and in good condition are flying off the market in three to five days, but homes that are overpriced can sit for over three months.”

Mortgage rates shot over 7% in October and have mostly stayed there through the end of the year, according to Mortgage News Daily. Home prices also continue to rise. The latest monthly price report from S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller, released Tuesday, showed prices nationally up 3.6% in October compared with the same month a year earlier.

“With the latest data covering the period prior to the election, our national index has shown continued improvement,” said Brian Luke, head of commodities, real and digital assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Removing the political uncertainly risk has led to an equity market rally; it will be telling should the similar sentiment occur among homeowners.”

Pending home sales, which is a measure of signed contracts to purchase existing homes, rose in November both monthly and annually to the highest level in nearly two years, according to the National Association of Realtors. They were, however, coming off a very slow base. The Realtors claim interest rates are now at a new normal.

“Consumers appeared to have recalibrated expectations regarding mortgage rates and are taking advantage of more available inventory,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “Mortgage rates have averaged above 6% for the past 24 months. Buyers are no longer waiting for or expecting mortgage rates to fall substantially. Furthermore, buyers are in a better position to negotiate as the market shifts away from a seller’s market.”

The slower selling pace, however, doesn’t bode well for the new year, especially with interest rates remaining elevated. There is still demand, but renters are remaining renters longer, according to another Redfin report, due not only to higher home prices but higher prices for brokers and movers.

The seller lock-in effect, where some sellers don’t want to trade their low mortgage rates in order to move, did start to ease in 2024, according to a year-end report from CoreLogic, but that was mostly due to life events or the need to tap accumulated equity. The added inventory didn’t move the needle much on sales, as costs stood in the way.

“Buyers are struggling to keep pace with housing prices. The cost of owning a home now, when adjusted for inflation, is at its highest point in decades. This persistent increase in prices and interest rates has created a challenging environment for both first-time buyers and those looking to move up the property ladder,” wrote Selma Hepp, CoreLogic’s chief economist, in the report.

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