U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. attends a briefing at the White House in Washington, Jan. 7, 2026.

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

New federal dietary recommendations have sparked mixed reactions from the embattled restaurant industry, as changing guidelines could encourage Americans to dine out less often or choose from a smaller pool of restaurants when they do leave home.

The departments of Health and Human Services and Agriculture unveiled the nutrition guidelines on Wednesday. The recommendations, which are updated every five years, pushed for higher consumption of protein and full-fat dairy and reduced intake of processed foods and sugary drinks.

The guidelines are primarily a public health tool for federal agencies, health-care providers and nutrition experts, so it’s unclear how much they will influence individual consumer choices. Although the recommendations largely focus on eating at home, they lightly touched on the restaurant industry as well.

“When dining out, choose nutrient-dense options,” the guidelines advise.

While the recommendations could discourage Americans from spending at restaurants — especially at a time when high inflation has curbed trips to dine out — some pockets of the industry had a positive reaction to the changes. The changes could give a particular boost to struggling fast-casual chains like Sweetgreen and Chipotle, which have long touted the type of natural ingredients championed by HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s “Make American Healthy Again” movement.

One lobbying executive who represents restaurant companies, whose organization was involved in meetings with the White House on the new guidelines, said the outcome could have been “far worse” for the sector. The person, who declined to be named because their organization was involved in private discussions, said the end result was better for the industry than proposed guidance from earlier in 2025 was. 

However, the executive said they are still concerned the guidelines could encourage Americans to eat at home when diners have affordable options to incorporate those foods at restaurants. That implication could also ruffle feathers among restaurant chains and their franchisees.

Despite those potential concerns from some, industry lobbying group the National Restaurant Association backed the new guidelines.

“Now, more than ever, restaurant operators are offering a wider variety of options, allowing consumers to choose what best fits their dietary needs, preferences, and lifestyles. We congratulate Secretary Kennedy and the Trump Administration on the release of the new guidelines and look forward to continued collaboration with policymakers to ensure that nutrition guidance remains practical, flexible, and supportive of access and innovation,” National Restaurant Association spokesman Sean Kennedy said in a statement to CNBC. 

Restaurant franchise lobbyist the International Franchise Association, called the approach “nuanced” and said it may limit the number of price increases restaurants have to make.

“Fortunately, the more nuanced approach of these guidelines helps ensure our members will not have to raise prices and that consumers can continue to make their own choices,” the group said. “Any future regulations or guidance must keep potential cost increases top of mind, as restaurant owners already face numerous regulatory burdens and supply chain challenges, which most often disproportionately affect small business owners, like franchisees, and ultimately, American consumers.”

How fast casual could benefit

Some of the most supportive reactions came from chains that had been beaten down in 2025, including Chipotle and Sweetgreen. Both fast-casual names saw pullbacks from younger consumers who continue to struggle in a K-shaped economy, where spending has concentrated more among the highest earners.

Sweetgreen, which was the biggest restaurant sector laggard last year with a nearly 80% stock decline, cheered the new guidelines.

A spokesperson told CNBC in a statement: “We keep ultra-processed ingredients and added sugars out of our restaurants, source transparently from partners we know and trust, and cook our food from scratch. That is why we are excited to see the new Food Pyramid so clearly emphasizing whole, real, and unprocessed foods.”

Sweetgreen founder and CEO Jonathan Neman wrote on X, “The U.S. government is for the 1st time urging Americans to avoid highly processed food, added sugar, and refined carbohydrates. Today, the government finally told the American people the truth. Avoid highly processed food (which is 70% of a child’s diet). Avoid refined carbohydrates.  CELEBRATE REAL FOOD… LFG!”

Chipotle debuted a High Protein Menu with items ranging from 15 to 81 grams of protein.

Source: Chipotle Mexican Grill

Similarly, Chipotle, which recently debuted a high-protein and GLP-1-friendly menu, told CNBC it has already catered to similar dietary guidelines.

“Our menu of real ingredients makes it easy to follow the new dietary guidelines that prioritize high-quality protein, healthy fats, fruits, vegetables, and whole grains — while limiting highly processed foods and refined carbohydrates,” Chipotle spokeswoman Laurie Schalow said in a statement. “With real food made from wholesome ingredients — without artificial colors, flavors, or preservatives — Chipotle offers choices that fit a balanced, modern approach to eating.”

The company’s stock was down nearly 40% in 2025, but some Wall Street analysts have pointed to it as a potential winner in the new GLP-1 landscape, where users of the drugs often opt for smaller portions with more protein.

Kennedy has spearheaded the MAHA platform, championing a diet based on whole foods to prevent chronic disease. At times, his beliefs, like his advocacy for beef tallow and encouragement of more red meat in diets, have run afoul of both public health experts and industry players, like McDonald’s.

Kennedy’s criticism of processed foods has put fast-food chains on the defensive, although President Donald Trump is a vocal and loyal fan, particularly of McDonald’s.

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Members of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices listen to a presentation about Covid-19 during an ACIP meeting at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, Sept. 19, 2025.

Alyssa Pointer | Reuters

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s hand-picked vaccine panel on Friday weakened Covid shot recommendations in the U.S., advising that all Americans consult a health-care provider before deciding whether to receive the vaccine.

The 12-member panel, called the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, or ACIP, recommended that people 6 months and up receive vaccines based on so-called “shared clinical decision-making,” which refers to a decision process between a health-care provider and a patient or their guardian. The group also voted to emphasize that for those under 65, the Covid vaccine is most beneficial for those at high risk of severe illness from the disease.

The guidance breaks from previous years, where the committee recommended that all Americans ages 6 months and up receive an updated Covid shot. 

While ACIP did not restrict the use of the Covid vaccine, the panel’s softer recommendation may further confuse Americans about whether to take a shot and make it more difficult for them to access one. ACIP sets recommendations on who should receive certain shots and which vaccines insurers must cover at no cost. 

The panel’s chair, Martin Kulldorff, said it was his understanding that the new recommendation means that government-run insurance plans will still cover Covid vaccines. But it’s unclear if all private health plans will maintain coverage of the shots.

The CDC, whose latest director was ousted by the Trump administration earlier this month, still has to adopt the panel’s recommendations. 

The vote is no surprise, as Kennedy appointed several vocal critics of mRNA Covid shots to the panel after ousting all previous members in June. During the meeting Friday, some members cast doubt on the safety and efficacy of Covid shots and mRNA technology, and questioned the reliability of data on hospitalization rates due to the virus.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Retsef Levi speaks during an Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices meeting at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, Sept. 19, 2025.

Alyssa Pointer | Reuters

It also follows Kennedy’s other recent moves to change U.S. Covid vaccine policy, which have created new hurdles for some people to access vaccines, including prescription requirements in certain states. The CDC dropped Covid shot recommendations for healthy children and pregnant women, and the Food and Drug Administration approved new Covid jabs with limits on who can get them. 

The ability to get vaccines may vary by state: In a break from federal guidelines, four Democratic states on Wednesday recommended that broad swaths of the population receive an updated Covid shot, including “all who choose protection.” Still, the new recommendations could weaken vaccination rates against the virus and heighten the threat of the disease spreading. 

A study published Thursday in JAMA Network Open showed that sticking to a universal Covid vaccine recommendation in the U.S., the guidance that has been in place in recent years, has the potential to prevent thousands more hospitalizations and deaths than limiting the advisory to high-risk groups. 

Numerous studies have demonstrated that shots using mRNA technology, including Covid vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna, are safe and effective, and serious side effects have happened in extremely rare cases. One paper in August estimates that Covid vaccines saved more than 2 million lives, mostly among older adults, worldwide between 2020 and October 2024. 

In a statement Friday, Pfizer said the company and its partner BioNTech “remain steadfast in our dedication to vaccine safety, quality and effectiveness through constant safety monitoring and ongoing research.”

One major health insurance group on Wednesday said its member plans will cover all vaccines already recommended by ACIP, including updated Covid and flu shots, despite any changes the new slate of appointees makes this week. Member plans of the group, America’s Health Insurance Plans, collectively provide coverage and services to over 200 million Americans. That includes more than a dozen Blue Cross Blue Shield plans, Centene, CVS’ Aetna, Elevance Health, Humana, Kaiser Permanente, Molina, and Cigna.

Debating Covid vaccines

One ACIP member, Retsef Levi, a professor of operations management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, led a work group that reviewed data and proposed recommendations around Covid vaccines. Levi’s presentation on the group’s findings questioned the safety and efficacy of Covid shots and cast doubt on mRNA technology.

“We have a range of things on the mRNA platforms that really suggest that it doesn’t work as intended,” said Levi, who has previously pushed to stop giving mRNA shots.

He said the majority of the work group felt that individual decisions on whether to receive a Covid vaccine are “appropriate” and specifically, that people should now have to obtain prescriptions for the shot. “You get to a level of nuance” where some patients may have recent prior infections or different comorbidities that should be discussed with a physician as part of a prescription, Levi said. 

But one work group member, Dr. Henry Bernstein, said during another presentation that “shared clinical decision-making and a need for a prescription creates barriers” to Covid vaccine access. 

“Simple, stable recommendations can increase vaccine coverage,” said Bernstein, a professor of pediatrics at Zucker School of Medicine at Hofstra/Northwell. “Covid-19 vaccines are highly safe and effective.” He is not a member of Kennedy’s panel who votes on recommendations.

“Covid-19 vaccination matters for pregnant women, pediatric patients, especially those less than two years of age, people 65 years and older, those of any age with a weakened immune system, medical conditions, and anyone who feels they want protection for themselves or their families,” he said. 

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Kenvue Inc. Tylenol brand pain reliever for sale at a pharmacy in New York, US, on Wednesday, March 27, 2024.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Shares of Kenvue fell more than 10% on Friday after a report that Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will likely link autism to the use of the company’s pain medication Tylenol in pregnant women. 

HHS will release the report that could draw that link this month, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday.

That report will also suggest a medicine derived from folate – a water-soluble vitamin – can be used to treat symptoms of the developmental disorder in some people, according to the Journal.

In a statement, an HHS spokesperson said “We are using gold-standard science to get to the bottom of America’s unprecedented rise in autism rates.” 

“Until we release the final report, any claims about its contents are nothing more than speculation,” they added. 

Tylenol could be the latest widely used and accepted treatment that Kennedy has undermined at the helm of HHS, which oversees federal health agencies that regulate drugs and other therapies. Kennedy has also taken steps to change vaccine policy in the U.S., and has amplified false claims about safe and effective shots that use mRNA technology.

Kennedy has made the disorder a key focus of HHS, pledging in April that the agency will “know what has caused the autism epidemic” by September and eliminate exposures. He also said that month that the agency has launched a “massive testing and research effort” involving hundreds of scientists worldwide that will determine the cause.

In a statement, Kenvue said it has “continuously evaluated the science and [continues] to believe there is no causal link” between the use of acetaminophen, the generic name for Tylenol, during pregnancy and autism.

The company added that the Food and Drug Administration and leading medical organizations “agree on the safety” of the drug, its use during pregnancy and the information provided on the Tylenol label.

The FDA website says the agency has not found “clear evidence” that appropriate use of acetaminophen during pregnancy causes “adverse pregnancy, birth, neurobehavioral, or developmental outcomes.” But the FDA said it advises pregnant women to speak with their health-care providers before using over-the-counter drugs.

The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists maintains that acetaminophen is safe during pregnancy when taken as directed and after consulting a health-care provider. 

Some previous studies have suggested the drug poses risks to fetal development, and some parents have brought lawsuits claiming that they gave birth to children with autism after using it.

But a federal judge in Manhattan ruled in 2023 that some of those lawsuits lacked scientific evidence and later ended the litigation in 2024. Some research has also found no association between acetaminophen use and autism.

In a note on Friday, BNP Paribas analyst Navann Ty said the firm believes the “hurdle to proving causation [between the drug and autism] is high, particularly given that the litigation previously concluded in Kenvue’s favor.”

— CNBC’s Angelica Peebles contributed to this report.

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The exterior view of the entrance to Merck headquarters in Rahway, New Jersey, on Feb. 5, 2024.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s revamped government panel of outside vaccine advisors on Thursday recommended the use of Merck‘s shot to protect infants from respiratory syncytial virus, a temporary reprieve for public health officials and companies concerned about the Health and Human Services secretary’s immunization policy.

The group, called the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, or ACIP, also voted unanimously to include Merck’s shot in the government’s list of recommended childhood immunizations that receive wide insurance coverage.

The votes in favor of the injectable antibody, Enflonsia, are a sigh of relief for drugmakers and the medical community after Kennedy earlier this month gutted the panel and tapped replacements, some of whom are well-known vaccine critics. 

The signoff will allow the company to launch the shot ahead of the RSV season that typically kicks off around fall and winter and lasts through the spring. Enflonsia, recommended for infants during their first RSV season, will compete head-to-head with a rival shot from Sanofi and AstraZeneca called Beyfortus.

Both are preventative monoclonal antibodies, which deliver antibodies directly into the bloodstream to provide immediate protection. But each targets a different part of the virus, making it difficult to compare them directly.

ACIP’s “recommendations are an important step forward in efforts to help reduce the significant burden RSV continues to place on infants, families, and health care systems,” said Dr. Richard M. Haupt, Merck’s head of global medical & scientific affairs, vaccines and infectious diseases, in a statement.

 RSV causes thousands of deaths among older Americans and hundreds of deaths among infants each year, and complications from the virus are the leading cause of hospitalization among newborns. In a mid- to late-stage trial on Enflonsia, the shot reduced RSV-related hospitalizations by more than 84% and decreased hospitalizations due to lower respiratory infections by 90% compared with a placebo among infants through five months.

Two of the vaccine critics on the panel, Retsef Levi and Vicky Pebsworth, voted against recommending Merck’s shot and questioned its safety throughout the meeting. 

But some other members underscored the safety of Merck’s shot, which won approval from the Food and Drug Administration earlier this month. 

“These are truly remarkable products. They are safe and they’re effective, and I don’t think there’s any further data that needs to be presented,” said member Dr. Cody Meissner, a professor of pediatrics at the Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth. 

The ACIP “work group has spent an enormous amount of time, the FDA has spent an enormous amount of effort looking at safety and efficacy, and it is simply not an issue here,” said Meissner, who has also held advisory roles at the CDC and FDA.

Other experts at the meeting, who aren’t members of the committee, agreed. 

“This is a tremendous advance for medical science, and I urge the committee to approve and pass this resolution so that we can continue to protect our children and keep them healthy,” said Dr. Jason Goldman, president of the American College of Physicians. 

Levi said he voted against the shot because he believes it is not “ready to be administered to all healthy babies. He added, “I think we should take a more precautionary approach to this.”

The vote specifically recommends one dose of Merck’s shot for infants ages 8 months or younger born during or entering their first RSV season. 

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A general view of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia.

Tami Chappell | Reuters

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s revamped government panel of vaccine advisors will start a review of long-approved shots in the U.S., the leader of the group said Wednesday in the first meeting with new members.

The panel, called the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, or ACIP, will also review the childhood vaccination schedule. Earlier this month, Kennedy in a stunning step removed and replaced all members of the group, which advises the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

ACIP members are independent medical and public health experts who review vaccine data and make recommendations that determine who is eligible for shots and whether insurers should cover them, among other efforts. But Kennedy appointed some vaccine critics, including Dr. Robert Malone, who could shape immunization policy and affect availability in the U.S. 

ACIP will create new work groups, which are staff that review published and unpublished data and develop recommendation options to present to the committee, Dr. Martin Kulldorff, the new chair of the panel, said during the meeting. One new work group will review the childhood vaccine schedule, while another will examine shots that have not been subject to reviews in more than seven years, he said.

The latter group may examine the universally recommended hepatitis B vaccine and ask whether it is “wise” to administer the shot to every newborn before they leave the hospital, Kulldorff added. He also said the group could review the combination measles, mumps and rubella shot, along with the chickenpox jab. Vaccine skeptics have questioned the safety of both shots.

“This was supposed to be a regular practice of the ACIP, but it has not been done in a thorough and systematic way. We will change that,” Kulldorff said.

Dr. Sean O’Leary, an infectious disease expert with the American Academy of Pediatrics, told reporters later Wednesday that reviewing the vaccine schedule has been “an anti-vaccine trope for many, many years.” O’Leary said many vaccines are “essentially always reviewed in real-time through a number of different mechanisms,” including several safety surveillance and disease surveillance tools.

The American Academy of Pediatrics did not participate in the ACIP meeting on Wednesday because “we view it as illegitimate,” O’Leary said. He added that the organization will continue to provide vaccine schedules for children independently of the CDC.

“What we’re seeing today, and if this were to continue, the medical providers, public health professionals, the entire country is no longer going to trust ACIP. That’s clear,” O’Leary said, saying the goal is to reinstate the 17 members that Kennedy fired and return to “a normal process.”

During a full-day meeting Wednesday in Atlanta, the panel evaluated data on Covid-19 vaccines and RSV shots. A vote on recommendations for the latter was postponed until the group’s meeting on Thursday.

Also on Thursday, the group will review data on shots for the flu and other diseases. 

The CDC director has to sign off on those recommendations for them to become official policy.

“Vaccines are not all good or bad,” Kulldorff said in opening remarks.

“If you think that all vaccines are safe and effective and want them all, or if you think that all vaccines are dangerous and don’t want any of them, then you don’t have much use for us. You already know what you want,” said Kulldorff, a biostatistician and epidemiologist who questioned lockdowns and other public health measures early in the Covid-19 pandemic.

“But if you wish to know which vaccines are suitable for you and your children and at what ages, then we will provide you with evidence-based recommendations,” he added.

Ahead of the meeting, one of Kennedy’s new appointees stepped down from the panel.

In a statement, an HHS spokesperson said Dr. Michael Ross withdrew from ACIP during a mandatory review of each member’s financial holdings, without providing further details. It is unclear what his financial holdings are.

Ross is a clinical professor of obstetrics and gynecology and has served on another CDC advisory panel focused on breast and cervical cancer.

A CDC web page on conflict of interest disclosures for ACIP members does not appear to list any for Kennedy’s members, apart from Dr. Cody Meissner.

What new panel members have said about vaccines

Kennedy’s eight new members include some well-known vaccine critics, such as Dr. Robert Malone.

Malone bills himself as having played a key role in the creation of mRNA vaccines, but has gained a large following for making baseless and disproven claims about Covid-19 shots. 

Another new member, Retsef Levi, has pushed to stop giving mRNA vaccines, falsely claiming in a post on X that they cause “serious harm including death, especially among young people.”

Another member, Vicky Pebsworth, is a nurse on the board of The National Vaccine Information Center. That organization has been widely criticized as a leading source of misinformation and fearmongering about immunization.

During the meeting on Wednesday, Pebsworth revealed that she owns stock and health-care sector funds that include vaccine manufacturers. But she said her holdings are under the amount the government considers to be a conflict of interest, allowing her to participate in the ACIP meeting.

Kennedy fired previous ACIP members for having what he called “persistent conflicts of interest.” But all HHS agencies and their advisory panels have had rigorous policies for conflicts of interest, and there have been no related issues for years.

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Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Secretary of Education Linda McMahon attend a Make America Healthy Again Commission event, in the East Room of the White House in Washington, May 22, 2025.

Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

A key, revamped government panel of vaccine advisors appointed by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will soon vote on a shot preservative that contains mercury, which is safely used in some flu jabs but has been incorrectly linked to autism in the past. 

The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, or ACIP, will hear a presentation about the preservative, called thimerosal, at a planned meeting on June 26. The panel will also vote on “thimerosal-containing vaccine” recommendations, according to a draft agenda for the two-day meeting posted Wednesday. 

It is the panel’s first meeting with Kennedy’s newly appointed members, many of whom are well-known vaccine critics. He named the eight advisors last week after firing the previous 17 members of the committee, which advises the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on vaccine policy.

It is unclear what will be discussed in the presentation or what exactly the panel will vote on.

Thimerosal has been widely used for decades as a preservative to prevent the growth of harmful bacteria in several medicines and vaccines with multiple doses. But its use in approved vaccines has dropped sharply as manufacturers have shifted to single-dose packaging for their shots, which don’t require preservatives. 

Some multi-dose forms of flu vaccines for adults still contain thimerosal, including Sanofi‘s Fluzone and two shots from biotech company CSL Seqirus. All vaccines routinely recommended for children 6 years of age and younger in the U.S. are available in formulations that do not contain thimerosal, according to the Food and Drug Administration.

The FDA and other health bodies have emphasized that many well-conducted scientific studies have found no link between thimerosal and autism, despite unfounded concerns decades ago about a potential connection.

“The scientific evidence collected over the past 20+ years does not show any evidence of harm, including serious neurodevelopmental disorders, from use of thimerosal in vaccines,” the FDA said on its website.

The new ACIP members will play a significant role in shaping immunization policy in the U.S., as the panel reviews vaccine data and makes recommendations that determine who is eligible for shots and whether insurers should cover them, among other efforts. The committee is also scheduled to review data and vote on other vaccines, including shots for Covid and RSV, during the two-day meeting.

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U.S. Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. testifies before the Senate Committee on Appropriations hearing on the Department of Health and Human Services budget, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 20, 2025.

Ken Cedeno | Reuters

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on Monday said he is “retiring” all 17 members of a crucial government panel of vaccine advisors, a shocking step that could help to sow doubts about immunizations in the U.S.

“A clean sweep is needed to re-establish public confidence in vaccine science,” Kennedy said in an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal on Monday.

Kennedy is removing all members of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, or ACIP, which advises the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The group reviews vaccine data and makes recommendations that determine who is eligible for shots and whether insurers should cover them, among other efforts.

ACIP members are independent medical and public experts who make recommendations based on rigorous scientific review and evidence. The CDC director has to sign off on those recommendations for them to become official policy.

It is unclear who Kennedy will appoint to the new group. In a release, HHS said ACIP will still hold a planned meeting from June 25 to 27 to make recommendations. A person familiar with the matter told CNBC that new members will run that meeting.

The advisor overhaul is the latest move by Kennedy – a prominent vaccine skeptic – to change and potentially undermine vaccinations in the U.S. since he took the helm at HHS. Under Kennedy, HHS stopped recommending routine Covid-19 vaccines for healthy children and healthy pregnant women and canceled programs intended to discover new vaccines to prevent future pandemics, among other changes.

Kennedy said Monday HHS will put “the restoration of public trust above any pro- or antivaccine agenda.”

Kennedy added some of the members on the committee were last-minute appointees of the Biden administration and noted that, without ousting advisors from the current group, the Trump administration would not have been able to appoint a majority of new members until 2028.

Kennedy claimed that the panel has been “plagued with persistent conflicts of interest and has become little more than a rubber stamp for any vaccine.”

But all HHS agencies and their advisory panels have had rigorous policies for conflicts of interest, and there have been no related issues for years. All members of federal vaccine advisory committees are already required to comply with regulations around disclosing potential conflicts of interest.

The announcement comes days after pediatric infectious disease expert Dr. Lakshmi Panagiotakopoulos resigned as co-leader of ACIP due to the belief she is “no longer able to help the most vulnerable members” of the U.S. population.

Health policy experts previously told CNBC that a shake-up of the advisory committee could produce politicized recommendations that highlight the harms rather than the benefits of shots. Those recommendations could also create greater distrust in the CDC and Trump administration among scientists and public health experts.

ACIP has also scrutinized vaccine products in the past, in contrast to what Kennedy and other Trump administration figures have argued. In certain instances, the group has recommended more restricted use of vaccines than their approval under the Food and Drug Administration would permit.

For example, the FDA approved Merck’s HPV vaccine for use in women and men ages 9 to 45. But the CDC only recommends its use in patients ages 9 to 26, because there is a lower public health benefit of the vaccine in those ages 27 to 45.

— CNBC’s Angelica Peebles contributed to this report.

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks in the Oval Office of the White House, on the day he is sworn in as secretary of Health and Human Service in Washington, D.C., U.S., Feb. 13, 2025. 

Nathan Howard | Reuters

The nation’s new top health official could further erode already falling U.S. vaccination rates against once-common childhood diseases, a development that comes as a growing measles outbreak has led to the first U.S. death from the disease in a decade.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent vaccine skeptic, now leads the Department of Health and Human Services and wields enormous power over the federal agencies that regulate vaccines and set shot recommendations. 

Kennedy tried to distance himself from his previous views during his Senate confirmation hearings, claiming that he isn’t “anti-vaccine” and would not make it “difficult or discourage people from taking” routine shots for measles and polio. 

But some health policy experts said his early moves as HHS Secretary are concerning and suggest that he could undermine immunizations in other, less direct ways, which could increase the risk of children catching preventable diseases.

“The steps that he’s taken so far seem to be in line with his views of skepticism about vaccines and their safety, of wanting to allow for parents to not get their children vaccinated. It’s all things he’s championed,” said Josh Michaud, associate director of global health policy at KFF. “There might be more dominoes to fall coming.”

Kennedy has said he will review the childhood vaccination schedule, and is reportedly preparing to remove and replace members of external committees that advise the government on vaccine approvals and other key public health decisions, among other efforts. Some experts said he could also amplify data highlighting the risks of vaccines, promote unfounded claims about shots and undermine legal protections for vaccine makers. 

If rates drop even more, there could be major consequences, such as renewed outbreaks of vaccine-preventable illnesses in certain communities.

“Within the next couple of years, we could see major drops in childhood vaccination rates,” Lawrence Gostin, professor of public health law at Georgetown University, told CNBC. “He has all the powers he needs to sow public distrust in vaccines. He has a history of doing that and he has a desire to do it.”

“This could lead to significant outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases throughout America, with the disproportionate impact on red states that President Trump carried in the 2024 election,” Gostin added. 

Kennedy has a long track record of making misleading and false statements about the safety of shots. He has claimed they are linked to autism despite decades of studies that debunk that association. Kennedy is also the founder of the nonprofit Children’s Health Defense, the most well-funded anti-vaccine organization in the U.S. In a government ethics agreement in January, he said he stopped serving as chairman or chief legal counsel for the organization as of December.

But vaccines have saved the lives of more than 1.1 million children in the U.S. and saved Americans $540 billion in direct health-care costs over the last three decades, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention research released in August.

States and local jurisdictions set vaccine requirements for school children, but the federal government has a longstanding system for approving and recommending shots for the public. That includes creating the childhood vaccination schedule, which recommends when children should receive certain shots. It’s used by states, pediatricians and parents. 

The Department of Health and Human Services did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

Why have childhood vaccination rates fallen?

Childhood vaccinations and the state requirements in place for them have been “one of the greatest public health success stories” in the U.S., allowing the country to eliminate many diseases that people once feared, such as polio, according to William Moss, professor at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

Rates stayed relatively steady for nearly a decade before the Covid pandemic, as about 95% of kindergarten children were up to date with all state required vaccines, Moss said. That includes separate shots for polio and varicella, a vaccine for measles, mumps, and rubella – called MMR – as well as a jab that protects against diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis.

But the share of kindergarten children who are up to date on their vaccinations has dipped since the pandemic, according to data collected and aggregated annually by the CDC from state and local immunization programs. Less than 93% of kindergarteners had received all state required vaccines in the 2023-2024 school year, data shows.

Exemptions from school vaccination requirements, particularly non-medical exemptions, have also increased, according to the CDC. The share of U.S. children claiming an exemption from one or more shots rose from 2.5% in the 2019-2020 school year to 3.3% in the 2023-2024 school year, the highest national exemption rate to date. Nearly all of that increase was driven by non-medical exemptions, such as religious or personal belief reasons.

That decrease appears consistent with the public’s perception of childhood immunizations. A Gallup survey released in August found only 40% of Americans said they considered childhood vaccines extremely important, down from 58% in 2019 and 64% in 2001. 

The overall decline is fueled in part by vaccine skepticism, a trend that “certainly existed far before the pandemic,” KFF’s Michaud said.

Vaccine hesitancy and the anti-vaccine movement have been around globally for decades. They are often intertwined with political, moral and spiritual ideas around the rights of an individual versus the community, the limits of government power over bodily autonomy, mistrust of medical institutions and misinformation about shot safety and efficacy. 

The politicization of the pandemic only fueled more doubts about vaccinations. 

It created a partisan divide on the public’s acceptance of the Covid vaccine, according to Sean O’Leary, chair of the American Academy of Pediatrics committee on infectious diseases. Social media and public figures amplified misinformation about Covid jabs, and some of those “falsehoods about Covid shots spilled over to an extent to other types of vaccinations,” he said. 

“There was a very precipitous drop [in vaccination rates] right when the pandemic hit, in those first few months afterwards,” O’Leary said. “And we never really completely caught up.” 

O’Leary noted that the vast majority of parents on both sides of the political spectrum continue to vaccinate their kids. 

Still, surveys suggest that the partisan division on immunizations has deepened in recent years. In 2024, 63% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters said childhood vaccinations were “extremely important,” compared to just 26% of Republicans and GOP leaners, according to the August Gallup survey. 

Five years earlier, enthusiasm was just slightly higher among the Democratic group at 67%, and double among Republican respondents at 52%. 

There are “certainly political ideologies that are driving vaccine policy in certain areas of the country,” which has a “clear downstream impact on vaccination levels,” said Dr. Neil Maniar, a public health professor at Northeastern University. 

Over three-quarters of U.S. states, or 39, had vaccination rates for the MMR shot below the “Healthy People 2030” target rate of 95% during the 2023-2024 school year. That refers to the level needed to prevent community transmission of measles, a highly contagious and deadly virus. 

The data means that roughly 280,000 school children were unvaccinated and unprotected against measles during that school year, according to the CDC. MMR vaccination rates among kindergarteners vary across states, ranging from a low of around 80% in Idaho to a high of more than 98% in West Virginia. 

Moss noted that clusters of unvaccinated people within a specific community increase the risk of disease outbreak. 

“That’s where you’re going to get these larger outbreaks like we’re seeing in Texas right now with measles,” Moss said. 

A child who wasn’t vaccinated died in the outbreak in rural West Texas, state officials said in late February, the first U.S. death from the disease since 2015. The childhood vaccination rate for measles in Gaines County, the epicenter of the current outbreak in Texas, is just below 82%.

A second patient, an unvaccinated adult in New Mexico, tested positive for measles after death, state officials said Thursday.

Kennedy last week said shots protect communities from measles, but emphasized that the decision to vaccinate “is a personal one.” He also pushed unconventional treatment regimens for measles, including cod liver oil, which is rich in vitamin A. 

Kennedy could target vaccine advisory panels

Kennedy’s HHS already appears to be targeting a key part of U.S. vaccine policy: external advisors to the government health agencies that approve shots and set recommendations for them. 

The government postponed a meeting of vaccine advisors to the CDC and a separate meeting of advisors to the Food and Drug Administration, the latter of which is crucial to determining the flu strains in next season’s shots. It is unclear why the meetings were canceled or when they will be rescheduled.

FILE PHOTO: The headquarters of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is seen in Silver Spring, Maryland November 4, 2009. 

Jason Reed | Reuters

One “clear step” Kennedy can also take to undermine vaccinations is removing members of those advisory panels that shape the government’s shot recommendations, including which jabs are covered at no cost by different types of insurance, according to Georgetown’s Gostin. 

Several reports have said Kennedy plans to replace members whom he perceives to have “conflicts of interest,” though it is unclear how many people will be outed or when. 

Gostin called conflicts of interest one of Kennedy’s “code words” for “simply purging hard working, experienced scientists from advisory committees and replacing them with those that are more skeptical of shots.” All HHS agencies and their advisory panels have rigorous policies for conflicts of interest, and there have been no related issues for years, he noted. 

Kennedy’s shake-up of advisory committees could produce “bogus recommendations” that highlight the harms rather than the benefits of shots, according to Gostin. He said those recommendations could influence governors, legislatures and school boards in red states, which could adopt policies that reduce childhood immunizations and “create wide-open opt outs of shots.” 

Those recommendations could also create greater distrust in the CDC and Trump administration among scientists and public health experts, including Gostin himself, he said.

Sherry Andrews prepares a MMR vaccine at the City of Lubbock Heath Department in Lubbock, Texas, U.S. Feb. 27, 2025. 

Annie Rice | Reuters

“It will have a longer-term corrosive effect on the value of science in America, which is already under severe attack,” he said. 

Kennedy is also reviewing the childhood immunization schedule. Experts said that could lead to removing recommendations for certain vaccines or changing their suggested use from “routine” – when the default approach is to vaccinate – to more of an individual choice guided by discussions with a health-care provider. 

The hope is that officials on the state and local level influence policy or implement practices to drive higher vaccination rates, said Northeastern’s Maniar. State and local governments may need to “expand the work they do” in some cases to “make up lost ground” and advocate for vaccinations, he added.

Cherry-picking data

Kennedy could also cherry-pick data, studies and any other information about vaccines that “create the misleading impression that shots aren’t safe and cause severe side effects,” according to Gostin. He said Kennedy could include them in official government announcements to undermine the public’s faith in shots. 

On the campaign trail, Kennedy said he wanted to “restore the transparency” around vaccine safety data and records that he accused HHS officials of hiding. Gostin called transparency another “code word” for “highlighting dubious scientific studies.” 

He added that Kennedy’s wording suggests that the government’s existing vaccine information is not transparent, when databases recording adverse events and immunization rates have long been fully open to the public. 

Antonio Perez | Chicago Tribune | Tribune News Service | Getty Images

Kennedy is reportedly shelving promotions for a variety of shots, including a campaign touting seasonal flu jabs. He wanted the CDC’s advertisements to promote the idea of “informed consent” in vaccine decision-making instead, STAT News reported in February. That refers to giving patients important information, including possible risks or benefits of a medical treatment, such as adverse events associated with shots. 

Experts have said while informed consent is important, shifting the framing of advertisements for shots that the CDC has long recommended to focus more on the potential risks could undermine people’s willingness to get vaccinated.

“When a parent exercises informed consent not to have their child immunized with measles, it certainly puts that child at risk, but it puts every child in that school with them at risk,” Gostin said. 

Kennedy would need approval from Congress to change the existing legal liability protections in place for vaccine makers, but he could still undermine them in other ways, experts said. HHS’ National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program currently pays patients injured by standard childhood vaccines and shields drugmakers from litigation. 

As HHS secretary, Kennedy can remove or add to the list of vaccines and injuries included and covered by that program, Michaud said. Any changes to the list could change some liability protections for vaccine makers, potentially spurring a wave of litigation over alleged injuries from the shots, he added. 

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