Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime route for 20% of the world’s oil supply, has caused the largest-ever energy supply disruption – sending Brent crude to $105 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate up to $96 as of Thursday.

As long as the supply shock is temporary, it likely won’t hurt growth or unemployment – but it will probably boost inflation even higher, according to economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal this week.

Crude oil prices would need to jump to roughly $138 a barrel to put the US at a serious risk of a recession, according to a new survey of economists. Guerin Charles/ABACA/Shutterstock

Economists see a 32% chance of a recession in the next 12 months – up from 27% in January, according to the survey, which collected answers from 50 economists at Wall Street banks, universities and consulting firms.

As for how high crude oil would need to climb to push odds of a recession above 50%, economists’ answers averaged around $138 a barrel – though their responses ranged from $90 to $200, per the survey.

Oil prices would need to remain at that elevated level for about 14 weeks to raise recession odds above 50%, according to the experts. That’s the average length of time they cited, with the economists giving a wide range of answers — from four to 55 weeks.

Uncertainty about how long the Middle East conflict could last has muddled such projections, with critics saying the Trump administration has given mixed messages on the timeline — prompting pushback from the White House.

Robert Fry, chief economist at Robert Fry Economics, currently sees a 40% chance of a recession, with oil at $125 for eight weeks as the tipping point.

“My forecast is contingent on the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz will be fully open to tanker traffic by mid-April,” he told the Journal. 

“If it isn’t, oil prices will go much higher, and I will put a recession in my forecast.”

Brent crude soared to $105 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate is up to $96 as of Thursday. Christopher Sadowski for NY Post

Economists forecast gross domestic product adjusted for inflation will grow 2.1% in the fourth quarter and the unemployment rate will hit 4.5% in December – roughly the same as their estimates earlier this year.

But their outlook on inflation has soured as they expect the Consumer Price Index to hit 2.9% in December – after earlier this year forecasting a more modest 2.6%.

National average gasoline prices have skyrocketed to $3.88 a gallon amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis, according to AAA, almost certainly playing a role in inflation this year – but economists said they expect price pressures to be broader than just higher prices at the pump.

They expect the core reading of the personal consumption expenditures price index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation figure and excludes volatile food and energy prices, to rise 2.8% in the fourth quarter compared to the previous year. That’s a jump from forecasts of 2.6% earlier this year.

Economists expect price pressures to be broader than just higher prices at gas pumps. AFP via Getty Images

Economists said they expect oil to settle at $86.70 a barrel by the end of June, and finish the year at roughly $73.54.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held interest rates steady in the 3.5% to 3.75% range, opting to stay in wait-and-see mode amid the war in Iran and conflicting economic signals.

Most policymakers kept their predictions for the year the same, with the closely-watched “dot plot” showing one rate cut this year and another in 2027.

Like the economists in the survey, the Fed’s forecasts for GDP and unemployment were also little changed, and they now expect higher inflation.

National average gasoline prices have skyrocketed to $3.88 a gallon amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis. MediaPunch / BACKGRID

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell – whose term ends in May – nodded to heightened uncertainty around the war in Iran, joking that if there was ever a meeting to skip economic projections, “this would be a good one, because we just don’t know.”

But he also nodded to the economy’s relative steadfastness in the face of severe shocks, saying it has done “pretty well through a lot of significant challenges” – adding that slow job growth is partially due to an immigration crackdown, while tariffs and the pandemic have hit inflation.

Economists in the Journal’s survey also acknowledged the economy’s ability to withstand recent shocks – but noted that there is no guarantee this resilience will continue.

“Given the ongoing war in the Middle East, surging oil prices, high tariffs, AI and the severe constraints on immigration, it is worthwhile noting how resilient the US economy has been so far,” Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group, told the Journal. 

“But we must not take this resilience for granted.”

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Analysts at Goldman’s trading desk estimate that as much as $33 billion of selling could hit US equities this week, telling investors that they need to “buckle up,” according to Bloomberg News.

If the S&P 500 falls below 6,707, an additional $80 billion could be shed over the next month, Goldman analysts estimated.

A fresh selloff could hit Wall Street as soon as this week, with Goldman Sachs’ proprietary Panic Index signaling markets are near “max fear” despite Friday’s rally. Getty Images

Investor stress surged last week, with Goldman’s Panic Index — which combines measures including one-month S&P implied volatility and VIX volatility — climbing to 9.22, a level signaling markets are approaching “max fear.”

The jump reflects investors paying up for downside protection in options markets as they brace for larger and more frequent price swings, even after last week’s rebound.

Such elevated volatility conditions often coincide with price moves that trigger selling by Commodity Trading Advisers, or CTAs — systematic, trend-following funds that adjust exposure based on market momentum rather than fundamentals.

The S&P 500 has already breached short-term thresholds that set off CTA selling, and Goldman expects those funds to remain net sellers in the days ahead, regardless of whether stocks rise or fall, according to Bloomberg News.

“Big shifts in views take months and quarters to develop, not days. So stay zoomed out to avoid overtrading,” said Dean Lyulkin, founder of The Dean’s List, urging investors not to overreact to recent market volatility.

Lyulkin pointed to strength beyond technology stocks, saying that “while tech is down, causing the S&P 500 to trade at a loss, the majority of our counterbalance themes are showcasing their strength.”

Friday’s rally was widely viewed as a relief bounce rather than a shift in underlying market conditions. Google Finance

He told The Post that foreign stocks, US small caps “and the equal weight S&P 500 are all doing well,” while noting that “the commodity component of our portfolio strategy is doing poorly as crypto falls in concert with risk assets and tech,” even as the Fed held rates steady and the economy is on “firm footing.”

US stocks ended last week on a strong note after a volatile stretch, with the S&P 500 jumping about 2% on Friday in its biggest one-day gain since May.

The rebound helped the index claw back much of its midweek losses, though it still finished below recent highs after sharp declines earlier in the week driven by a selloff in technology shares and renewed volatility across risk assets.

US stocks ended last week on a strong note after a volatile stretch, with the S&P 500 jumping about 2% on Friday in its biggest one-day gain since May. Google Finance

Friday’s rally was widely viewed as a relief bounce rather than a shift in underlying market conditions, driven largely by dip-buying after a bruising, tech-led selloff earlier in the week.

Investors reassessed fears about AI-driven disruption and heavy Big Tech spending, with some judging the pullback as overdone, while the rebound reflected a technical reset and short covering rather than a new macro catalyst.

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Musk saw his wealth jump by $178 billion in just two days, putting his year-to-date gain at a record-breaking $216 billion as investors cheered Tesla’s driverless taxi tests in Texas, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on Wednesday.

That means the Tesla and SpaceX founder gained more wealth in just under a year than LVMH Bernard Arnault’s entire fortune – a whopping $205 billion from running the world’s largest luxury goods maker, including brands like Louis Vuitton and TAG Heuer.

Elon Musk’s net worth has hit a staggering $648 billion – making the world’s richest person more than twice as wealthy as the runner-up. AFP via Getty Images

Even if the $216 billion that Musk earned this year was his entire fortune, he would still be the world’s sixth-richest person – wealthier than Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer; Nvidia’s Jensen Huang; and Jim, Rob and Alice Walton, heirs of the Walmart fortune.

Shares in Tesla closed at an all-time high of $490 on Tuesday after the automaker revealed it has been testing autonomous taxis on Austin, Texas roads – welcome news to investors who have grown concerned the company is not reaching enough milestones in self-driving and robotics.

Musk’s 12% stake in Tesla, which is worth roughly $200 billion, helped push his fortune to new heights on Wednesday.

Reports that SpaceX has doubled its valuation since the summer to a whopping $800 billion during a secondary share sale also drove the wealth increase. 

The rocket-launch firm is aiming for an initial public offering in the second half of 2026, according to the Information.

It will hold its first meetings with bankers this week in a process known as a “bake off” – a key step before the IPO, which would rank among the largest of all time, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Shares in Tesla closed at an all-time high of $490 on Tuesday. Christopher Sadowski

The wealth pop made Musk more than twice as wealthy as Alphabet co-founder Larry Page, the second-richest person in the world with a $264 billion net worth and $96 billion year-to-date gain.

Musk is now more than four times as rich as Warren Buffett, the longtime chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway known as the “Oracle of Omaha” who is stepping down after running the firm for roughly 60 years.

Buffett is worth about $150 billion after donating more than half of his fortune.

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Musk’s net worth now exceeds the valuations of top companies like Oracle, Mastercard and Johnson & Johnson, which all rank among the 20 most valuable American companies.

It’s a stark turnaround from earlier this year, when shares in Tesla roughly halved from mid-January to mid-March as investors panicked over Musk’s White House role.

The South African-born billionaire faced heated backlash after he led the Department of Government Efficiency – a cost-cutting committee that slashed foreign humanitarian aid and laid off tens of thousands of federal employees.

The rocket-launch firm is reportedly aiming for an initial public offering in the second half of 2026, according to the Information. Jennifer Briggs/ZUMA / SplashNews.com

Shares in Tesla also faltered as investors grew concerned that the automaker was not delivering driverless robotaxis and autonomous robots as quickly as expected.

The stock decline caused Musk in September to briefly lose the top spot as the world’s richest person to Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison.

Across the board, AI stocks slipped as some top executives warned that companies might be overspending on the new tech and creating a “bubble” – but the AI rally has since returned.

Now Musk even appears poised to become the world’s first trillionaire after Tesla shareholders last month approved his jaw-dropping $1 trillion pay package. 

Musk will have to check off a series of lofty performance goals over the next decade to earn the full package, like hitting a $2 trillion valuation, churning out 20 million vehicles and delivering 1 million Optimus humanoid robots.

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Last month, Ryan Gerding, a marketing executive in Kansas City, Missouri, showed up early for dinner with his wife at Martin City Brewery, a local watering hole. They shared meatball sliders, pretzel bites and chicken wings along with a 2-for-1 beer coupon and a cocktail. 

The total bill was $51.31 versus the $75 they have typically spent on dinner, Gerding told The Post.

Diners are flocking to Happy Hours and ordering appetizers to save money on going out. MArtin City Brewing Company

“It’s a fun thing that we are able to do more of because we are taking advantage of the lower prices during happy hour and because apps don’t cost as much as entrees,” Gerding told The Post.

“When we are at the bars – and sometimes it’s as early as 4 p.m. – we are surprised to see the places packed,” Gerding added.

Appetizer sales across the US this year surged 20% through August – blowing past typical growth in the low-to-mid-single digits, according to Buyer’s Edge, a technology platform that tracks food purchasing by chain restaurants. Sales of entrees were flat versus past growth averaging around 3%.

$15 platters like this sampler-Ultimate Trio-at Applebee’s are replacing entree orders. AppleBee’s

“At first we thought the 20% was a mistake, because historically we have never seen that kind of a hike in an industry that grows moderately,” said Jim Pazzanese, executive vice president of global strategic procurement for Buyer’s Edge. 

The firm’s platform – whose clients include Red Robin, Fatburger, Johnny Rockets, Hurricane Grill & Wings and Ponderosa Steakhouse – tracks more than $74 billion in annual food service spending at 200,000 restaurant locations. 

Entree sales are falling as meat prices have soared this year, according to Buyer’s Edge. Meanwhile, demand has soared for mozzarella sticks, pickle chips, egg rolls, cheese curds, jalapeno poppers and cheese bites. 

In August, Applebee’s Grill + Bar launched a $15 appetizer called Ultimate Trio with a national TV campaign at the start of the NFL season. Customers can pick three items from a list that includes Boneless Wings, Chicken Wonton Tacos, Brew Pub Pretzels and Waffle Fries.

Ed Doherty operates more than 100 Applebee’s Grill + Bar eateries. Doherty Enterprises

“We have purposefully introduced products that are appetizers and can be eaten as an entree,” said Ed Doherty, CEO of Doherty Enterprises, which operates more than 100 Applebee’s franchises. “Right now it’s critical to have prices on your menu for the guest who needs the value meal.”

The savings for customers is “significant,” Doherty added, because a steak is $26, a pasta dish is $22 and a salad is $18 at Applebee’s restaurants in New York City. As for restaurant owners, there’s a silver lining, he said.

“It’s building more traffic,” Doherty told The Post. “The health in a restaurant business is transactions. I’d rather have the volume because there is the opportunity to upsell them.”

Even swanky steakhouses are responding to the penny-pinching crowd. Willie Degel, who owns the Uncle Jack’s Steakhouses in Manhattan and Bayside Queens, said about 15% of customers are ordering appetizers instead of a main course and sharing entrees.

Willie Degel owns two Uncle Jack’s Steakhouses in NYC. Curtis Ross/Starpix/Shutterstock

Degel, who was the host of Food Network’s “Restaurant Stakeout” reality series, said demand for burgers and sandwiches has surged this year alongside beef prices. Accordingly, its menu has expanded to five options.

For example, the Big Jack Burger and Black Truffle Burger sell for $29 to $39, respectively, including fries. That’s versus steaks that include a $95 rib chop and a $165 porterhouse for two. 

“We sell a lot more burgers and steak sandwiches without a doubt,” Degel told The Post. “It’s driving traffic.”

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Bitcoin’s previous record was $124,480 in mid-August, buoyed by friendlier regulations from US President Donald Trump’s administration and strong demand from institutional investors.

REUTERS

The cryptocurrency had risen on Friday for an eighth straight session, bolstered by recent gains in US equities and inflows into bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

In contrast, the US dollar retreated on Friday, posting multi-week losses against major currencies, as uncertainty surrounding a US government shutdown clouded the outlook and delayed key data releases, such as payrolls, critical for gauging the economy’s direction.

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The operator of Forge Casino Resort in Pennsylvania has been slapped with a $30,000 fine. It was raised to the Board by the Office of Enforcement Counsel, and the PGCB approved a consent agreement, as it was found that the casino allowed a 13-year-old to gamble on the floor.

Obviously, gambling is something for ages 21 and over, and it’s unexplained how the teenager managed to gain access. This wasn’t a quick mistake either, as the PGCB reports that they were on the floor for “more than six hours” gambling on slot machines.

16 more individuals restricted from gambling in Pennsylvania

However, despite the showstopper, the PGCB has announced that it is restricting certain locals from gambling in a variety of ways. First, 12 individuals have now been placed on “Involuntary Exclusion Lists”. Not only does this prevent them from entering a casino or using another physical location to gamble, but it also prevents them from legally gambling online if the PGCB regulates it in the state.

The press release points out that the Involuntary Exclusion List now contains 1,422 different people. A weaker version of the list is the Involuntary Casino Exclusion list. This stops people from using physical establishments after they were found to be in the wrong. In this case, that includes a “female patron” who left a three and a nine-year-old in the car while she gambled on slot machines.

Another two casino patrons, male and female, were also placed on the list after they had been found to leave two eight-year-olds for 29 minutes while they gambled on sports.

Then, finally, two more were added to another list, the Involuntary Interactive Gaming Exclusion list, which was enacted due to “fraudulent actions” when gambling online.

Featured image: Wikimedia Commons

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