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Happy Friday. If you’re as fascinated by the retail sector as I am, you’ll want to read this exclusive from CNBC’s Melissa Repko. I don’t want to spoil it, so I’ll just say that Target isn’t over its boycott woes.

Stock futures are lower this morning. The three major indexes fell sharply yesterday.

Here are five key things investors need to know to start the trading day:

1. +10 days

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks next to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth during a cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 26, 2026.

Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

President Donald Trump announced yesterday that he is extending the pause on attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities, pushing back the deadline to April 6. The 10-day extension came at the request of Iran’s government, Trump said.

Here’s what to know:

2. DHS deal

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, a Republican from South Dakota, speaks to members of the media outside his office at the US Capitol in Washington, DC, US, on Thursday, March 26, 2026.

Aaron Schwartz | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The Senate reached a deal early this morning that would fund most of the Department of Homeland Security, a sign of progress toward ending the department’s shutdown. The bill will now head to the House of Representatives, where it could get a vote as soon as today.

The package does not include funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement, exactly what Democrats have been calling for, though it also doesn’t include the changes to ICE’s enforcement practices that Democrats wanted.

The agreement comes as the partial government shutdown forces Transportation Security Administration agents to work without pay, causing long security lines at airports. Trump said yesterday that he would bypass Congress and issue an executive order to “immediately” pay TSA workers.

3. Claude’s court conquest

The Anthropic logo appears on a smartphone screen in this photo illustration, as the AI firm files lawsuits against the United States Department of Defense after the Pentagon moves to blacklist the company following disagreements over safeguards limiting the use of its AI systems for surveillance and autonomous weapons.

Jonathan Raa | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Anthropic got its wish in federal court yesterday: Judge Rita Lin granted the artificial intelligence startup’s request for an injunction in its lawsuit against the White House.

Lin said the Pentagon’s blacklisting of Anthropic was “classic illegal First Amendment retaliation.” Anthropic said in a statement that it was “grateful to the court for moving swiftly” and that it would still like to work with the government if possible.

In other AI policy news, venture capitalist David Sacks said yesterday that his role as Trump’s crypto and AI czar was ending. Sacks said he was joining the President’s Council of Advisers on Science & Technology, a federal advisory committee.

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4. Fighting words

Former U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh speaks during a monetary policy conference at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution in Palo Alto, California, U.S. May 9, 2025.

Ann Saphir | Reuters

Sen. Elizabeth Warren didn’t mince words in a Thursday letter to Kevin Warsh, Trump’s pick to lead the Federal Reserve. “You have learned nothing from your failures,” Warren told Warsh in the scathing eight-page letter.

The Massachusetts Democrat said Warsh’s prior tenure at the Fed between 2006 and 2011 “should disqualify you from a promotion.” Warren also warned that Warsh would offer a “rubber stamp for President Trump’s Wall Street First Agenda.” Warsh did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

Meanwhile, the Fed’s Board of Governors is urging a judge to quash a request from prosecutors seeking to bring back subpoenas issued as part of the criminal probe of Chair Jerome Powell.

5. Batter up

Overall view of Truist Park in the fifth inning during game two of a double header between the Atlanta Braves and the Miami Marlins on August 9, 2025 in Atlanta, Georgia.

Matthew Grimes Jr. | Atlanta Braves | Getty Images

Yesterday was Opening Day for the MLB’s 2026 season. As CNBC’s Alex Sherman reports, it may be the league’s last before major changes kick in.

The MLB’s collective bargaining agreement with its players expires at the end of the season. Bruce Meyer, the interim executive director of the MLB Players Association, said last month that a lockout is likely amid negotiations.

Additionally, one-third of the league’s teams did not have local TV deals set for the season until just this week. Some teams announced Wednesday that their new MLB-operated team channels would be carried by DirecTV.

The Daily Dividend

Here are some stories we’d recommend making time for this weekend:

— CNBC’s Dan Mangan, Sean Conlon, Yee Ling Shan, Itzel Franco, Kevin Breuninger, Ashley Capoot, Jennifer Elias, Justin Papp, Leslie Josephs and Alex Sherman contributed to this report. Josephine Rozzelle edited this edition.

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The Warner Bros. studios water tower stands next to a U.S. flag in Burbank, California, U.S. Nov. 18, 2025.

Mike Blake | Reuters

This is CNBC’s Morning Squawk newsletter. Subscribe here to receive future editions in your inbox.

Here are five key things investors need to know to start the trading day:

1. And the winner is…

Breaking news this morning: Netflix said it reached a deal to purchase Warner Bros. Discovery’s film and streaming assets, ending the sale process that has been the talk of tinsel town.

Here are the details:

• Under the deal, Netflix will acquire WBD’s film studio and HBO Max streaming service. Discovery will continue with its spin out of its TV network business that houses brands such as TNT and CNN.
• Netflix will pay $27.75 per WBD share in the cash-and-stock deal, equating to a total enterprise value of more than $82 billion.
• The streaming giant’s acquisition is slated to close after the separation with Discovery, which is expected to happen in the third quarter of 2026.
• Paramount Skydance and NBCUniversal parent Comcast also bid for all or some of WBD’s assets in the sale process, which officially began in October.
• CNBC reported yesterday that Paramount attorneys sent a letter to WBD CEO David Zaslav questioning the “fairness and adequacy” of the sale procedures.

Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal, which owns CNBC. Versant would become the new parent company of CNBC upon Comcast’s planned spinoff of Versant.

2. That’s so meta

Mark Zuckerberg, chief executive officer of Meta Platforms Inc., wears a pair of Meta Ray-Ban Display AI glasses during the Meta Connect event in Menlo Park, California, US, on Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2025.

David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Meta Platforms rebounded more than 3% yesterday, pulling the Facebook parent into positive territory for the week. The stock’s jump helped the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite eke out gains in Thursday’s session. Follow live markets updates here.

Meta’s rally came after Bloomberg reported that CEO Mark Zuckerberg is planning to make cuts to the company’s metaverse unit. The report said executives have considered cutting as much as 30% of the division’s budget, and that the cuts could include job losses that would likely impact Meta’s virtual reality unit. Stephanie Link, Hightower Advisors’ chief investment strategist, told CNBC that the move would be par for the course for Zuckerberg.

3. Full beat

Shoppers line up outside of Ulta Beauty before the 6am opening on Black Friday.

Aimee Dilger | LightRocket | Getty Images

Ulta Beauty doesn’t appear to be feeling the same slowdown that other consumer brands are reporting. The retailer beat Wall Street’s expectations on both lines for the third quarter, sending shares up more than 6% in extended trading.

Ulta raised its full-year profit and sales guidance for the second quarter in a row, saying it expects higher comparable store sales growth than previously penciled in. As CNBC’s Melissa Repko points out, Ulta is benefitting from consumers’ continued interest in beauty products — even as they pull back on other spending.

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4. Pulte’s problem

William Pulte, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) nominee for US President Donald Trump, during a Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee confirmation hearing in Washington, DC, US, on Thursday, Feb. 27, 2025.

Al Drago | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The Government Accountability Office is investigating Federal Housing Finance Authority Director Bill Pulte, the congressional watchdog said yesterday.

Senate Democrats last month called for the GAO to probe Pulte, asking the agency to determine whether Pulte and FHFA employees “misused federal authority and resources” to accuse President Donald Trump’s enemies of mortgage fraud. Pulte has criminally referred several Democrats to the Department of Justice, including New York Attorney General Letitia James, Sen. Adam Schiff and Rep. Eric Swalwell.

A GAO spokesperson said the organization isn’t ready to offer a timeline for the process. An FHFA spokesman declined CNBC’s request for comment.

5. Race to the top

Tesla Cybertrucks in front of the company’s store in Colma, California, US, on Monday, Nov. 10, 2025.

David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Tesla made up ground in Consumer Reports’ closely watched ranking of auto brands release yesterday. The electric vehicle maker landed at No. 10 for 2026, up from the 18th spot last year.

Tesla’s rise was driven by an increase in reliability, Jake Fisher, Consumer Reports’ senior director of auto testing, told CNBC’s Michael Wayland. Notably, Tesla’s Cybertruck was the brand’s only model with a below-average score.

Subaru took the top spot for 2026, followed by BMW and Porsche. See the full list here.

The Daily Dividend

Here are some stories we recommend making time for this weekend.

— CNBC’s Julia Boorstin, Lillian Rizzo, Alex Sherman, David Faber, Sara Salinas, Sarah Whitten, Melissa Repko, Chris Eudaily, Dan Mangan and Michael Wayland contributed to this report. Josephine Rozzelle edited this edition.

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Black Friday signage at a Target store ahead of Black Friday in Jersey City, New Jersey, US, on Tuesday, Nov. 25, 2025.

Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Black Friday is proving more popular for younger consumers than for their elders, according to a new report provided exclusively to CNBC.

AT&T Business‘ 2025 Holiday Shopping Survey, conducted by Morning Consult, found that 40% of Generation Z members and 32% of millennials plan to do most of their shopping on Black Friday. Older generations, on the other hand, prefer to shop later in the season, just a week or two before Christmas, the survey found.

“Black Friday is always such a big deal, and the pricing and the offers and advertising that’s done during that time is probably what would draw Gen Z, especially things done on social media,” said Angela Rutherford, AT&T’s vice president of mid-market sales.

The enthusiasm for Black Friday comes even as Gen Z plans to pull back their spending.

Read more CNBC Black Friday news

Consulting firm PwC reported in September that Gen Z shoppers plan to spend 23% less on average this holiday season than a year ago – the sharpest decline of any generation and a significant change from the previous year, when Gen Z said they planned to spend 37% more.

And as non-wealthy Americans face pressures of higher prices and economic uncertainty, some reports are showing signs of a “K-shaped” economy that may stretch into the holiday season, with wealthier consumers spending more and lower-income consumers shopping more conservatively.

A new Deloitte survey found that consumers at large plan to spend 4% less on Black Friday than they did last year, primarily due to concerns of financial constraints and a higher cost of living.

Still, Rutherford said consumers are being more “intentional and value-driven” in their holiday shopping this year.

That spending is translating into more support for small businesses rather than large legacy retailers, with 77% of consumers reporting they would do all of their holiday shopping at small businesses if they could and if the pricing was the same, according to AT&T’s survey.

Compared with last year, the number of survey respondents who said they shop at small businesses to boost their local economies grew by 8 percentage points.

“I think there’s a price consciousness out there, combined with a, ‘If I can still save money or get a good price, I will still shop local,’ type of mentality out there,” Rutherford said.

The AT&T survey also found that 72% of people reported getting their gift ideas from in-person shopping rather than from social media.

And even as artificial intelligence begins to reshape the way people shop, more than half of shoppers said they were more likely to use traditional online search methods for their gifting this holiday season than AI – just 9% of those surveyed said they are more likely to use AI to find gifts.

“AI has exploded over the last couple years, and it’s infiltrating all aspects of life,” Rutherford said. “I think as time goes on, you will see a shift from the traditional search to AI for shopping.”

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Unrivaled 3-on-3 women’s basketball league

Courtesy: Unrivaled

Unrivaled, a new 3-on-3 women’s professional basketball league, launches Friday, presenting both a major test and opportunity for women’s sports to boost its growing profile in the United States.

The league, co-founded by WNBA superstars Napheesa Collier and Breanna Stewart, has already announced deals with a dozen sponsors and raised $35 million in funding. Collier told CNBC that the league has already shown it has “immense” potential and opportunity.

“When you invest into the players and invest into women’s sports, I think we’re seeing the return already,” she said. “This is just the beginning for us. It’s year one and we’ve already been able to do this, so we’re really excited for the future.”

Games will air on Warner Bros. Discovery-owned TNT Sports platforms in a multiyear media rights deal. TV ratings will matter not just in terms of total viewership, but also demographics, said Lee Berke, president and CEO of sports consulting firm LHB Sports, Entertainment & Media.

“You’re looking for audiences that skew younger, men and women watching, you’re looking for the size of the audience,” Berke told CNBC. “There’s obviously a lot of hype going into day one. You want to see that audience expand and grow over the course of the season.”

Here’s what to know about Unrivaled ahead of its inaugural tip-off:

How the league works

Unrivaled’s first season will feature six teams playing against one another for two months. The season culminates in a four-team playoff tournament, with the championship taking place on March 17. There is also a 1-on-1 player tournament set for the middle of the season.

Games are played in a 3-on-3 format and take place on a smaller court compared to WNBA courts. They last one hour and are broadcast on TNT on Fridays and Mondays and on TruTV on Saturdays. Games are also available to stream on WBD’s Max.

All games are played at the Mediapro US venue in Medley, Florida, a suburb of Miami. The season takes place during the WNBA offseason and is intended to provide an alternative to playing overseas.

Many WNBA players spend their offseason playing for teams in Russia, China and other countries to supplement their income. However, the WNBA collective bargaining agreement signed in 2020 now suspends players without pay for the season if they don’t return from their overseas teams in time for training camp. WNBA training camp starts on April 27.

“It’s trying to fill a gap in the calendar for these players. It’s extending the runway of professional basketball,” Alex Bazzell, Unrivaled president and Collier’s husband, previously told CNBC.

How players are paid

Unrivaled will also pay many players a higher salary than the WNBA does. The total salary pool is over $8 million, Bazzell told SB Nation, which averages out to about $242,000 per player this season. Players will also receive equity and revenue shares from the league, which has said it is offering the highest average salary in women’s professional sports league history.

At a press conference Friday, Bazzell said the league doesn’t have a minimum or maximum salary, but that pay is partly based on what competitors and other women’s sports leagues pay.

“We are being extremely aggressive when you look at the entire landscape and ecosystem,” Bazzell said. “We try to look at numerous things: What are you making overseas, potentially? What are you making in the WNBA? How do we beat those numbers, candidly, to make it worth their while?”

WNBA yearly salaries currently range from the minimum $66,079 to the core player maximum of $249,244. Only one player per WNBA team can be designated as a core player and earn that amount.

Unrivaled Basketball League: Rae Burrell

Courtesy: Unrivaled

Who’s involved

The league has 36 participants for its first season, all of whom played in the WNBA last year. There are 15 2024 WNBA All Stars on the rosters, headlined by All-WNBA first-team honorees Collier, Stewart and Alyssa Thomas. Other notable players include Sabrina Ionescu, Brittney Griner and Angel Reese.

Unrivaled has raised $35 million from its seed and Series A rounds from a host of high-profile investors. Its backers include basketball stars like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Carmelo Anthony as well as Olympians like Alex Morgan and Michael Phelps. Tennis great Coco Gauff was announced as its newest investor on Jan. 6.

Collier said while everyone else is now catching on to the rise of women’s sports, sports figures were early to recognize the value of the industry.

“I think the people in sport have known this for a long time,” Collier said. “To see the support of other athletes is really encouraging. They believe in us so much, so that’s been really nice to see.”

Unrivaled’s corporate partners, Collier added, align with their vision of growing the sport.

“We said for a long time, this is not a charity. This is a great business opportunity, and those brands recognize that, too,” Collier said. “They’re not just doing this out of the goodness of their heart, they do believe in the growth of women’s sports. But they’re also doing it because they know that is something that has a lot of potential to be profitable.”

About a dozen companies have inked sponsorship deals with Unrivaled, including Sephora, State Farm, Wilson, Ally Financial and Samsung. Most recently, Unrivaled named Sprite as its presenting partner for the 1-on-1 tournament and Bodyarmor as its official sports drink.

“It’s tremendously impressive, both in terms of the number of sponsors, the quality of the sponsors and the fact that these are nontraditional sports sponsors,” Berke said.

TNT Sports’ crew of announcers and studio hosts for Unrivaled coverage includes Basketball Hall of Famer Lisa Leslie and two-time WNBA MVP Candace Parker.

Why it matters

Unrivaled’s debut comes amid a spike in national interest in women’s sports — particularly basketball.

The WNBA in particular enjoyed a surge, as former college stars Caitlin Clark, Cameron Brink and Reese led an attention-grabbing rookie class. The league said it broke an all-time record with over 54 million unique viewers during the season and saw its best in-person attendance numbers in 22 years.

Last year’s WNBA Finals, in which the New York Liberty defeated the Minnesota Lynx in five games, was the league’s most-viewed championship series in 25 years, according to ESPN.

The WNBA is expanding the Finals from a best-of-five format to a best-of-seven series starting next year. It is also debuting a 13th franchise, the Golden State Valkyries, next season and will add teams in Toronto and Portland, Oregon, in 2026.

Both the WNBA and its players are poised to cash in on the momentum.

The league can reevaluate its current 11-year, $2.2 billion media rights deal after 2028, CNBC previously reported, and the WNBA players union opted out of its current collective bargaining agreement in October. A new agreement, which would take effect after next season, could provide players with higher wages and more benefits, and the growing spotlight on WNBA athletes gives them greater leverage at the negotiating table.

Unrivaled will have a big impact on the business of women’s basketball, Collier told CNBC.

“We’re already seeing it expand the landscape. Overseas contracts are going up, other domestic league contracts are going up,” Collier said. “We’re trying to expand what the normal thinking around the business of women’s sports is, and you’re definitely going to see us push for those same things in the CBA.”

— CNBC’s Lillian Rizzo, Jake Piazza and Alex Sherman contributed to this report.

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A “Keep America Great” hat tops off a Christmas tree at a “Merry Christmas” rally hosted by President Donald Trump at the Kellogg Arena in Battle Creek, Michigan, Dec. 18, 2019.

Scott Olson | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Black Friday is poised to take on a new tint of red, white and blue this year after an election that many say was won and lost on consumer sentiment and the economy. 

CNBC analyzed shipping trends in red and blue states and spoke with shoppers in Texas, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, North Carolina and Virginia to better understand how the 2024 presidential election results could influence the holiday shopping season. 

People who voted for President-elect Donald Trump were overwhelmingly positive about the future of the economy, while supporters of Vice President Kamala Harris were more pessimistic, concerned that the incoming president’s policies could make things harder on the middle class. In a world where sentiment drives purchasing decisions, these differences in opinion could shape how much people end up spending this holiday season.

For example, Harris voter Amanda Davila, a 30-year-old New York City educator, told CNBC she’s planning to spend less on the holidays this year and is “trying to be more cautious” about spending in the leadup to Trump taking office in January. 

“I’m worried about my own student loans and whether things will be taken out of forbearance, how much I’m going to be owing if the SAVE Plan [for student loan repayment] goes away and things like that,” said Davila. “It’s very hard being a millennial and having to worry about buying a house, affording groceries, rent, all that stuff. With our income, it’s not enough for everything these days.” 

Meanwhile, Trump voter Armando Duarte, a 62-year-old retired utility worker from Fort Lee, New Jersey, told CNBC he’s feeling a lot better about the holiday shopping season since Trump won. 

“I’m optimistic that people are going to feel a little bit more encouraged to spend because they may feel that the economy might be on the mend and coming back,” said Duarte. “I think things are going to really pick up for the better … I think that inflation is going to come down. Jobs are good, but they’re going to get a lot better, and hopefully wages are going to go up, and people are going to be able to afford to just basically live.” 

In the months before the 2024 election, retailers fretted over whether it would hurt sales and the all-important holiday shopping season, which was already facing a bleak outlook due to the shortened time between Thanksgiving and Christmas, among other challenges. Many companies issued cautious guidance for the back half of the year, in part over concerns that the election would distract consumers from shopping or a drawn-out election certification process would lead to unrest and dampen sales. 

However, now that Trump has won, it appears the election result could boost sales — at least in many parts of the country — because his supporters largely believe that economic conditions will improve under his direction. If people are feeling better about the economy, it means they’ll likely spend more, too, experts said. 

“If they feel optimistic about what comes ahead, then they are willing to spend more, even if it is on a credit card, knowing or expecting that they’re going to have the money to then pay it off,” said Meir Statman, an expert in behavioral finance and a professor at Santa Clara University’s Leavey School of Business. “So the general optimism of Republicans, on the whole, is likely to affect their spending. We know that sentiment generally affects what people do, including spending, and conversely, it might depress, of course, the sentiment of Democrats, and in all likelihood, negatively affect their spending.” 

The way some Americans were shopping online in the aftermath of the election bolsters that argument.

Shipping data gathered by e-commerce logistics provider Grip, which ships billions in merchandise across the country every year and specializes in the delivery of perishable goods, shows different shipping patterns in blue and red states. The firm examined the total number of packages it sent in the two months before the election and what percentage went to each state, and how that changed in the two weeks after the election.

In GOP-won states, shipping volumes increased by 50.4% after the election, while Democrat-won states saw volumes decrease by an average of 11.2%. Only two blue states — Illinois and Minnesota — saw shipping volumes increase after the election, while all others saw rates fall.

“Our data shows how major events like elections can significantly impact consumer sentiment, driving changes in eCommerce shopping behavior and logistics patterns,” Grip’s CEO Juan Meisel told CNBC. “After this year’s election, we saw significant shifts in spending activity, with some regions experiencing increased volumes as consumer confidence surged, while others saw declines.”

In a national consumer survey taken after the election, GlobalData found 51.3% of respondents believe a Trump presidency will positively affect the economy, while 13.5% plan to spend more this season now that he’s been elected. Conversely, 7.2% said they plan to spend less.

In another survey conducted by retail analytics firm First Insight, a third of consumers said they are planning to reduce their holiday spending budgets because of the election.

“Consumers have mixed feelings about the election result. However, on balance, there are more who see it as positive for the economy than those who see it as negative,” said GlobalData managing director and retail analyst Neil Saunders. “If people feel good, they are more likely to spend a little more over the holidays. Trump may not have had a huge impact on Christmas, but as far as spending is concerned, he is more of a Santa-like figure than a Grinch.”

Can Trump save Christmas? 

In the lead-up to the holiday shopping season, sales projections from the National Retail Federation and several consulting firms fell a bit flat after several years of strong growth, buoyed by inflation and pandemic stimulus checks.

In the 10 years before the pandemic and after the Great Recession, holiday retail sales grew on average by 3.68% each year. In some ways, this year’s forecast is a return to that historical average.

The NRF said it expects winter holiday spending in November and December to grow between 2.5% and 3.5%. At the high end, that’s close to the pre-pandemic, 10-year average, but on the low end, it’s 32% lower than the historical average. 

Either way you slice it, the forecast would represent the slowest growth since 2018, when holiday retail sales grew 1.8% from the year-ago period. 

“I think we’re gonna have a tough Christmas this year,” said Isaac Krakovsky, the consulting retail leader for EY Americas. “All my clients, big clients, are telling me they’re spending less in [capital expenditures]. All of them, right? When it’s every single one of them, and it’s driven by what they’re seeing in the market, that leads me to think we’re gonna have a tough holiday season.” 

A man dressed as Santa Claus holds up a sign that says “Merry Christmas Trump” as he arrives at a campaign event for Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump in Waterloo, Iowa, Dec. 19, 2023.

Kamil Krzaczynski | Afp | Getty Images

Most holiday forecasts came out before the election, so they had not factored in any effects from Trump’s win. But most experts agree that a decisive result is good for business one way or the other. 

“The good news is, certainty is better than uncertainty, even if your person didn’t win … So I suppose that will help,” said Aaron Cheris, a partner with consulting firm Bain & Company. “Usually, in election years, you see a little bit of back-loading, where people maybe didn’t do stuff earlier because they were waiting to see what happened, and so, will you see a little of that at the margin? Probably.”

While many Americans appear to be feeling better about the economy in the aftermath of Trump’s election, inflation pain lingers and is expected to dampen holiday spending. Plus, some categories are expected to outperform others, which could create another winners-and-losers situation for retailers come January.

Holiday sales for furniture and home furnishings are expected to decline in the high single digits, electronics and appliances are forecast to be flat, while apparel and grocery are expected to grow in the low single digits, according to Bain’s forecast. Those differences across categories came out earlier this week when companies including Abercrombie & Fitch and Best Buy reported earnings. Abercrombie issued robust holiday guidance ahead of expectations, while Best Buy fell short, warning demand for consumer electronics was waning.

The retail sales forecast gets a bit murkier, and a bit worse, when inflation is taken into consideration. The NRF’s forecast isn’t adjusted for inflation, nor are Bain and EY’s outlooks of 3% growth. When higher prices are stripped out of the guidance, real growth is expected to land around 0.5%, Krakovsky estimated. Cheris agreed that real growth should be much lower after inflation is taken into consideration.

“It’s not negative, it’s not recessionary, but it’s not exciting,” said Cheris. 

Between 2010 and 2019, holiday retail sales grew on average by 4.41% when adjusted for inflation, according to an analysis of data published by Bain. If real sales grow only between 0.5% and 1% this holiday season, it would be a major drop from the pre-pandemic historical average. 

Shoppers browse for dresses during the Black Friday sale at the Vivo Activewear women’s clothing store in downtown Nairobi, Kenya November 24, 2023. 

Thomas Mukoya | Reuters

Overall, inflation has been propping up retail sales for the last few years, and many of the shoppers interviewed by CNBC lamented the impact of higher prices, regardless of their political affiliation. Some said they plan to spend more this year, but that’s only because prices are higher — not because they’re buying more things. 

For Meri Pitts, a 24-year-old college student in Detroit who works in customer care, higher prices have made the holiday season feel more like a chore than something to look forward to.

“I am the type of person, even if it’s not the holiday time, I love to go shopping. I love to, like, get my friends little gifts and things like that,” said Pitts. “Prices have skyrocketed so much that a pastime of mine that I’ve literally been enjoying since I was in high school … it’s just not as fun as it used to be, because now I’m more worried about breaking my bank than I am about getting people gifts that I feel like they deserve.”

— Additional reporting by CNBC’s Michael Wayland, Melissa Repko, Sarah Whitten and Kristian Burt

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