Welcome to Today in Books, our daily round-up of literary headlines at the intersection of politics, culture, media, and more.

A $100K Prize to Find The Next Big Story

Eight finalists for The Next Big Story will receive a year-long writing course from The Novelry, and one winner will receive a $100,000 prize. The Novelry is an online creative writing school, and they’re behind this competition to reach a cohort of writers who don’t have access to traditional publishing circles or who might count themselves out of the writing and publishing game. “These are the sort of people who would have been where I was and made the assumption that to be a writer, you’ve got to be clever or posh,” founder and author Louise Dean told Publishers Weekly. More than 5,000 writers have already submitted entries to be judged by The Novelry team before a selection moves forward to a celebrity judging panel that includes Tayari Jones, Zosia Mamet, and Emma Roberts. Writers need only submit the first three pages of a novel concept by July 31st to participate in this competition. Get the deets here.

The Love Island Book Club?

Everyone has a book club, including Love Island USA contestant Jeremiah Brown. While my curiosity around the wild enthusiasm and bizarre, out-of-context clips of the show has never broken into viewership, I see clearly that Love Island is a whole moment. And, hey, if it gets more people reading, I’m good. Brown was voted off the show but racked up more than 2 million followers on TikTok along the way. One of these followers suggested he start a book club now that he’s done with the island, and this captivated him enough to give it a try. More than 100,000 fans were all in and chose The Song of Achilles by Madeline Miller as the club’s first read through a poll. This whole scenario tickles me, and I hope we hear all about what the club thought of Miller’s excellent epic tragedy.

Today In Books

Sign up to Today In Books to receive daily news and miscellany from the world of books.

A Beloved Poet and Human is Gone

Andrea Gibson, who shared their story, explorations of identity, and battle with terminal ovarian cancer has died. They were surrounded by loved ones, including their wife, Megan Falley. Gibson and Falley were the subjects of Come See Me in the Good Light, a documentary “exploring the couple’s enduring love as Gibson battles cancer.” The film, which won a Sundance Film Festival award, will air on Apple TV+ later this year. Here’s a quote from the AP News piece that illustrates how beloved and important Gibson was to so many:

Many LGBTQ+ fans said Gibson’s poetry helped them learn to love themselves. People with cancer and other terminal illnesses said Gibson made them less afraid of death by reminding them that we never really leave the ones we love.

Read more about Gibson’s life and legacy here.

Rachel Weisz to Star in VLADIMIR Adaptation: Here’s What Else We Know

The premise (and cover) of Vladimir had everyone talking about this book for a while, and now we’re getting an adaptation of Julia May Jonas’s debut novel about inappropriate relationships at a liberal arts college, and the charismatic novelist who arrives on campus and into one English professor’s life. Find out what we know about the adaptation so far.

The comments section is moderated according to our community guidelines. Please check them out so we can maintain a safe and supportive community of readers!

The post A $100K Prize to Find The Next Big Story appeared first on Our Story Insight.

Crypto signals — those well-timed nudges that tell you when to buy, sell, or sit tight — are becoming essential in today’s fast-moving digital markets.

Best Wallet, a non-custodial, anonymous Bitcoin wallet, is an ideal tool for users who care about privacy and control. But it’s more than just a storage solution — it’s now part of the broader signal ecosystem.

Best Wallet, a non-custodial, anonymous Bitcoin wallet, is an ideal tool for users who care about privacy and control.

With its Upcoming Tokens section, Best Wallet acts like a built-in crypto signal provider, surfacing early-stage altcoin and meme-coin launches directly in-app. These presale listings and alerts function as valuable alpha for traders looking to act on emerging opportunities before they hit the mainstream.

But as with anything in crypto, there’s plenty of noise. Some signals are backed by serious research while others lack the same rigorous verification. So how do you tell what’s worth following?

Crypto signals are trade ideas or alerts that help traders determine when to enter or exit positions.

They can be generated through technical analysis, AI algorithms, or insights from experienced analysts. Signals are commonly delivered via Telegram, Discord, email newsletters, or dedicated platforms — and increasingly, within all-in-one wallets like Best Wallet.

Are You Crypto Curious?

Best Wallet

Download a trusted exchange app — Start by choosing a licensed crypto exchange. We recommend starting with the Best Wallet app, available for both iOS and Android.

Create and verify your account — Sign up using your email, Google, or Apple ID. To complete registration, you’ll need to verify your identity with a government-issued ID and enable two-factor authentication (2FA) for added security.

Fund your account — Deposit money into your account by linking a bank account or credit card or even using gift cards. Choose an option that best fits your lifestyle.

Buy your first cryptocurrency — Use the app’s marketplace or swap tool to purchase crypto by entering the ticker symbol — like BTC for Bitcoin or ETH for Ethereum — and follow the prompts to complete the transaction.

Choose how to store your crypto — Decide whether you’ll keep your crypto in the exchange, move it to a digital wallet (hot wallet), or store it offline (cold wallet) for extra protection.

A good signal is like a good tip — its value depends on the credibility of the source.

“The best place to find and experiment with crypto signals is through online communities like Cryptotwits, where investors and traders of all experience levels share their approaches to the market,” said Tom Bruni, editor-in-chief at Stocktwits.

Amberdata is a blockchain and crypto asset analytics platform.

But not all insight comes from public chatter.

Brian Huang, co-founder of Glider, points to advanced tools like Arkham, Parsec, Nansen and Kaito that help track whale activity before it affects the broader market.

Transparency matters too.

Poliakov noted that while many signals are shared on social platforms like Discord and Telegram, the more credible ones come from providers who offer transparent performance data and clearly outline their methodology. He advised users to independently verify past performance and remain cautious — as many services lack regulatory oversight.

Logo of Glider, a crypto automation platform that executes trades based on user-defined signals.

For Ovie Faruq, a former Barclays trader turned Web3 builder, one resource stands above the rest. “Hands down, Real Vision provides the strongest technical and fundamental analysis of both crypto and macro markets.”

Others say the best information comes from triangulating data across crypto ecosystems.

“In derivatives we can figure out dealer positioning for options, hedging activity in the underlying futures, OI build-up and leverage liquidation inflection points,” said Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata.

Signals are inputs — not blueprints. And in crypto, context is everything.

“Investors should utilize crypto signals as part of their comprehensive investment or trading plan. A signal on its own may mean different things to different investors. Context matters, and investors need to tailor any signal or data point to their market approach,” Bruni said.

Logo of CryptoTwits, a community-driven platform where traders share real-time crypto market insights and signal strategies. Crypto Twits

One of the most widely watched indicators is the movement of funds to exchanges.

“One of the most common signals is movement of assets to centralized exchanges like Coinbase or Binance,” said Huang.

“Typically, when assets are moved to a centralized exchange it means they are getting ready to be sold. If large amounts of an asset are moved to an exchange, it’s generally a signal to sell that token.”

But even solid signals aren’t foolproof.

Poliakov emphasized that crypto signals should be used as tools within a broader strategy, not relied on blindly.

He advised evaluating signals based on individual risk appetite, trading style and overall portfolio exposure.

Different strategies call for different data. Magadini turns to derivatives activity for clues.

“In derivatives we can figure out dealer positioning for options, hedging activity in the underlying futures, OI build-up and leverage liquidation inflection points,” Magadini said.

Arkham is an intelligence platform that deanonymizes blockchain activity to help users identify the people and entities behind crypto wallets and transactions.

From a research standpoint, Marshall encourages using systems that can identify shifts in market conditions.

“Our research shows implementing regime detection systems that identify market state changes, then layering on specific signals like DeFi lending behavior as sentiment indicators or order book pressure analysis for execution timing,” he said.

And while some traders look to signals as answers, others don’t put them on a pedestal.

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that enables peer-to-peer transactions without the need for a central authority or intermediary. Galeno – stock.adobe.com

“Don’t get married to them, there is no black or white or right or wrong answer,” Faruq said.

Crypto signals can be effective — but only when used wisely. Traders must understand how the signals are generated, interpret them within the broader market context and avoid relying on them blindly.

Signals that are consistently profitable are rare, and no signal system is immune to volatility or market manipulation.

They can be — if you understand what they are and how to use them.

“Trading could even happen in the middle of the night, leading to profits you may have missed while asleep,” Huang noted, referring to tools like Glider that automate trades.

Poliakov, however, isn’t entirely convinced.

He argued that most signals tend to underperform when compared to a disciplined investment strategy. Without a proven track record or solid verification, he cautioned, many signals serve more as marketing tools than reliable indicators.

Bruni agrees that signals are only as good as the plan behind them. “You need a plan. Otherwise, you’re just chasing shiny objects.”

Faruq is even more blunt. “If there were a binary signal that could tell you to buy or sell, couldn’t you just use AI to print money forever?” he said.

Binance is one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, offering a wide range of digital asset trading pairs, advanced tools, and liquidity for both retail and institutional traders. REUTERS

“Signals are mostly subjective and only explain things AFTER the fact.”

Still, for those who know where to look, there are real opportunities.

Magadini noted that crypto markets still contain significant inefficiencies — ranging from futures basis opportunities and volatility asymmetries to DeFi and TradFi arbitrage — that informed traders can exploit.

Binance remains one of the largest and most liquid crypto exchanges in the world, making it a top platform for signal use.

Many signal providers tailor their strategies to Binance’s order books, token listings, and trading pairs.

Tools like CoinPanel, CryptoQuant and Binance-specific bots are often integrated into Telegram or Discord groups — offering users targeted signals for short-term trades, arbitrage and trend reversals.

Still, users should verify the track record of any Binance-focused signal provider and ensure they align with their trading goals.

Timing is everything for day traders. A few minutes can make or break a trade.

“One signal people typically watch for is token unlocks,” Huang said.

“A token unlock is when more supply of that token comes to market because investors have vesting schedules. More supply hitting the market typically dilutes the value of all of the other tokens.

Many times VCs will immediately sell their token unlock, so they can get back their liquidity.”

Colkitt kept it simple, telling The Post: “Day trading is a speed game—your signals need to be fast, composable, and rooted in real-time market movement.”

Real Vision is a financial media and research platform that provides deep-dive analysis on crypto, macroeconomics, and investing, featuring expert interviews and market insights.

Faruq, however, saw it differently.

“Pointless,” he said. “You might as well go to the casino. You’re trading against institutions with 100 times more data than you.”

Poliakov offers an alternative for those who want access to capital without selling.

APX Lending allows clients to take out secured loans while keeping their crypto positions intact — letting them reinvest or deploy capital without triggering taxable events or forfeiting long-term upside.

Still, if you’re looking for signals that help you move early on hot new tokens, Best Wallet’s presale alerts may offer a head start, especially for users who want access to launches without depending on Discord or influencers.

The post How to find the best crypto signals appeared first on Our Story Insight.

If you’re trying to figure out which cryptocurrency to buy today, one of the best places to start is Best Wallet.

A crypto wallet and discovery platform, Best Wallet offers users a curated experience to track trending tokens, research new projects, and access tools that help make smarter investing decisions.

Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just getting started, platforms like Best Wallet can provide the real-time insights and analytics needed to navigate the often chaotic world of crypto.

Are You Crypto Curious?

Best Wallet

Download a trusted exchange app — Start by choosing a licensed crypto exchange. We recommend starting with the Best Wallet app, available for both iOS and Android.

Create and verify your account — Sign up using your email, Google, or Apple ID. To complete registration, you’ll need to verify your identity with a government-issued ID and enable two-factor authentication (2FA) for added security.

Fund your account — Deposit money into your account by linking a bank account or credit card or even using gift cards. Choose an option that best fits your lifestyle.

Buy your first cryptocurrency — Use the app’s marketplace or swap tool to purchase crypto by entering the ticker symbol — like BTC for Bitcoin or ETH for Ethereum — and follow the prompts to complete the transaction.

Choose how to store your crypto — Decide whether you’ll keep your crypto in the exchange, move it to a digital wallet (hot wallet), or store it offline (cold wallet) for extra protection.

When evaluating cryptocurrencies, Martin Leinweber, director of digital asset research and strategy at MarketVector Indexes, suggests focusing on fundamentals.

“Identify cryptocurrencies through research into their fundamentals, such as network security, adoption rates, and GitHub activity, while using platforms like CoinMarketCap for market insights, keeping in mind their highly speculative risks,” he says.

Ethereum is the second most valuable cryptocurrency when measured by market capitalization. Alvaro – stock.adobe.com

That means understanding a coin’s technological foundation, the problem it aims to solve, its active user base and developer contributions.

Tools like on-chain analytics and blockchain explorers can help investors gauge activity levels, while whitepapers and roadmaps provide a sense of long-term vision.

But no matter how solid a project appears, volatility is always a risk in crypto.

Bitcoin and Ethereum still lead the pack by market cap and adoption.

“Large-cap cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, valued for its store-of-value narrative, and Ethereum, known for its robust smart contract ecosystem, are often considered leaders due to their market dominance and adoption, but all remain highly speculative,” says Leinweber.

Bitcoin is often dubbed “digital gold,” while Ethereum’s programmable blockchain powers everything from NFTs to decentralized finance (DeFi). Both have established track records and strong community support — but they’re not without risk.

Emerging contenders like Solana and Avalanche have drawn attention for their scalability and lower fees.

“Among newer tokens, projects like Solana stand out for their high-throughput capabilities,” says Leinweber, adding that even these require scrutiny of “their whitepapers and team credibility.”

Finding the best crypto to buy requires more than just reading headlines. Investors should evaluate a project’s “tokenomics,” development activity, partnerships and community strength.

“Assess their technological innovation, market traction, and developer activity, using data from whitepapers, on-chain analytics, and reputable reports, but recognize their speculative nature,” Leinweber advises.

When evaluating cryptocurrencies, experts suggest to focus on the fundamentals. WESTOCK – stock.adobe.com

In addition to platforms like Best Wallet and CoinMarketCap, crypto Reddit forums, Discord groups and podcasts can provide insight into how a project is being received by the wider community.

Long-term investors should prioritize sustainable growth and real-world utility.

“Large-cap tokens like Bitcoin, often seen as digital gold, and Ethereum, powering decentralized applications, are frequently favored for long-term potential due to their established ecosystems,” Leinweber says.

Before buying, take a close look at whether the project aligns with trends like scalability, modularity, or interoperability — key themes in the evolution of blockchain tech. Cross-checking data from independent sources is essential.

If you’re investing for the long haul, Bitcoin and Ethereum remain go-to options.

“Large-cap cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, with its institutional backing, and Ethereum, with its vast developer ecosystem, are often highlighted for their relative stability, but their speculative nature means significant risks remain,” Leinweber warns.

Long-term investors should prioritize sustainable growth and real-world utility. Travis – stock.adobe.com

Emerging coins with strong fundamentals, a dedicated development team, and growing adoption might also offer upside — but they come with higher risk. That’s why even long-term plays require regular re-evaluation.

New tokens often capture attention with bold promises and viral marketing, but caution is key. Look for projects with transparent leadership, detailed roadmaps, and meaningful use cases.

Leinweber points to Solana as an example of a newer token showing strong throughput capabilities but emphasizes its speculative nature.

With no history to fall back on, newer projects demand heightened scrutiny. Reading the whitepaper, understanding the community, and watching how the project delivers on early milestones can reveal a lot.

There’s no one-size-fits-all answer. Your ideal crypto depends on your risk tolerance, investment timeline and interest in particular sectors—like DeFi, gaming, or infrastructure.

Leinweber notes that even the most established coins carry risk.

“Decisions should be informed by deep research into project fundamentals and market dynamics, acknowledging the potential for sharp fluctuations,” Leinweber says.

Diversifying across market caps and use cases can help spread risk while offering exposure to innovation.

Staying informed is non-negotiable. “Trusted sources like CoinDesk, CoinTelegraph and The Block provide in-depth coverage of large-cap tokens like Bitcoin and Ethereum, while X offers real-time updates from developers and insiders,” Leinweber says.

“Though all crypto markets remain speculative and prone to misinformation.”

Experts say Solana is an example of a newer token showing strong throughput capabilities, though they warn of its speculative nature. Art_Photo – stock.adobe.com

Cross-verifying news is essential. Look for direct quotes, links to official channels and data-backed reporting. Platforms like Best Wallet also offer curated news that filters out the noise.

Even the best advice comes with a disclaimer.

“Look to reputable analysts, industry whitepapers, and platforms like X for insights, but their speculative nature means even expert advice carries uncertainty,” Leinweber says.

For financial guidance tailored to your situation, consulting a licensed advisor is wise. Pair that with your own research and you’ll be in a better position to make informed decisions.

In the end, the best crypto to buy now is the one that aligns with your goals, backed by solid fundamentals and a community that believes in its future. And when in doubt, platforms like Best Wallet can help you cut through the noise and make smarter, data-driven choices.

The post How to find the best crypto to buy now appeared first on Our Story Insight.

As Elon Musk sweeps through the federal government, those close to the billionaire are touting one particular tool in their arsenal: artificial intelligence.

Mr. Musk, who leads a bevy of technology companies, including SpaceX, Tesla, X and xAI, has been tasked by the Trump administration with drastically reducing federal spending through the so-called Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE. In the first two weeks of the administration, the group has upended federal agencies and urged workers to resign in order to reduce costs.

Musk allies who have taken on roles inside government agencies are evaluating how to harness A.I. to identify budget cuts and detect waste and abuse, according to people familiar with internal conversations, who spoke on the condition of anonymity out of fear of retaliation.

On Monday, Thomas Shedd, a former Tesla engineer who was appointed by the new administration to head technology efforts at the General Services Administration, told some staffers that A.I. would be a key part of their cost-reduction work, according to four people with knowledge of the conversation. At the agency, some staffers have been informed that they will be expected to cut 50 percent of its budget.

The agency houses the Technology Transformation Services, a group of roughly 700 technologists that Mr. Musk’s DOGE has seen as a key resource of engineering talent. Members of DOGE — who Mr. Shedd has referred to in internal messages as his “advisers” — have spent the past two weeks interviewing workers, asking them to describe their technical accomplishments and identify co-workers who exhibit “exceptional” talent.

Meeting with T.T.S. members Monday, Mr. Shedd said he hoped to pool all government contracts in a central database and use artificial intelligence to assess them for potential redundancies and budget reductions, the people familiar with the discussion said. He noted that the acting G.S.A. administrator, a Trump appointee and Salesforce executive named Stephen Ehikian, is maintaining an A.I. strategy document.

A.I. could also be used as a tool to detect fraud and waste, Mr. Shedd added.

Neither G.S.A. nor Mr. Shedd responded to requests for comment.

While both the Trump and Biden administrations have signaled an interest in increasing federal spending on the use of A.I. technologies across government, it’s unclear if the emerging technology could be used to identify overspending or fraud as Mr. Musk’s allies envision. In public discussions, Mr. Musk has, with little evidence, portrayed the U.S. government as rampant with billions of dollars in fraud that can be excised with hard work and technological know-how.

President Trump has defended Mr. Musk’s vast reach and the tactics he has used to shake up the federal bureaucracy.

“He’s got a team of very talented people, and we’re trying to shrink government, and he can probably shrink it as well as anybody else, if not better,” Mr. Trump told reporters on Monday.

Mr. Musk has been bullish on building A.I. systems at his companies, while simultaneously warning that the powerful technology could destroy humanity if he does not control it. Mr. Musk leads xAI, an artificial intelligence company that provides a chatbot and other services to his social media company, X, and also uses A.I. to power driver assistance systems at Tesla.

He has also sued OpenAI, his chief competitor, claiming that the firm, which he co-founded, breached its founding contract by putting commercial interests ahead of the public good. Mr. Musk left OpenAI in 2018 after disputes with other co-founders. (The New York Times has sued OpenAI and Microsoft, claiming copyright infringement of news content related to A.I. systems. The two companies have denied the suit’s claims.)

The leaders of the nation’s largest A.I. companies — among them Google, Meta, OpenAI and Amazon — donated to and attended Mr. Trump’s inauguration last month as they’ve sought to curry favor with a new administration shaping federal policy around the developing technology.

Mr. Trump also appointed David Sacks, a venture capitalist, donor and ally to Mr. Musk, as the “White House A.I. and Crypto Czar,” and rescinded the Biden administration’s order to create A.I. safeguards. Last month, the president also announced a new $100 billion A.I. initiative between OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank to create computing infrastructure in the United States to power artificial intelligence.

In his new government role, Mr. Musk has insisted that there is ample waste and fraud that has gone undetected, echoing claims he made when he cut costs at companies like Twitter. In a livestream audio conversation that began after midnight on Monday in Washington, Mr. Musk claimed that wasteful spending, including “fake people” collecting Social Security and Medicare payments as well as “foreign fraud rings,” was taking $100 billion to $200 billion a year of U.S. taxpayer money.

“A trillion dollars can be saved just by addressing waste, fraud and abuse,” he said without saying how he arrived at that number.

Aric Toler contributed reporting.

The post Musk Allies Discuss Deploying A.I. to Find Budget Savings appeared first on Our Story Insight.

The number of Americans receiving psychotherapy increased by 30 percent during the pandemic, as virtual sessions replaced in-person appointments — but new research dampens the hope that technology will make mental health care more available to the neediest populations.

In fact, the researchers found, the shift to teletherapy has exacerbated existing disparities.

The increase in psychotherapy has occurred among groups that already enjoyed more access: people in higher-income brackets, living in cities, with steady employment and more education, researchers found in a series of studies, the most recent of which was, published Wednesday in The American Journal of Psychiatry.

Among those who have not benefited from the boom, the team found, are children from low-income families, Black children and adolescents, and adults with “serious psychological distress.”

“I think that the whole system of care — and maybe the internet delivery is a piece of this — appears to be pivoting away from those in greatest need,” said Dr. Mark Olfson, a professor of psychiatry at Columbia University Irving Medical Center and the lead author of the studies on access to care.

“We’re seeing that those with the greatest distress are losing ground, in terms of their likelihood of being treated, and that to me is a very important and disconcerting trend,” he added.

It wasn’t supposed to be this way. In the 1990s, teletherapy was championed as a way to reach disadvantaged patients living in remote locations where there were few psychiatrists. A decade later, it was presented as a more accessible alternative to face-to-face sessions, one that could radically lower barriers to care.

“Telehealth did not live up to the hype,” said C. Vaile Wright, senior director of the office of health care innovation at the American Psychological Association. The reasons, she added, are no surprise: Many Americans lack access to reliable broadband, and insurers do not adequately reimburse providers, who, in turn, choose to treat privately paying clients.

“If you can’t afford it, no matter the modality, you just can’t afford it,” Dr. Wright said. It may be, she added, that weekly therapy sessions are simply not scalable to a broad population, and the field should explore light-touch alternatives, like single-session interventions and digital therapeutics.

As telehealth platforms grow, they may be attracting clinicians from community settings with the promise of flexible hours and better conditions, said Dr. Jane M. Zhu, an associate professor of medicine at Oregon Health and Science University who studies the accessibility of mental health services.

Selecting from a large patient pool, they may opt to treat patients with milder conditions and more ability to pay. “It’s certainly something we should know,” Dr. Zhu said. “There should be light around this. Who are these companies serving? And what does this mean for patients who are most in need?”

The percentage of Americans receiving psychotherapy remained relatively steady, at 3 to 4 percent, for decades before beginning a gradual rise, said Dr. Olfson.

Then two factors — the pandemic and the explosion of teletherapy — contributed to a sharp increase, with the number of adults receiving psychotherapy rising to 8.5 percent in 2021 from 6.5 percent in 2018. (By comparison, the annual percentage of adults taking psychotropic medication remained stable, at around 17.5 percent.)

Dr. Olfson said he was surprised by the magnitude of the increase. “We haven’t had something like Covid before, and we haven’t had this technology before,” Dr. Olfson said. “There was a lot of social isolation, a lot of loneliness. And those are things that psychotherapy is designed to address, in a way that medication can’t.”

The findings are based on the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, which is conducted by the federal government and measures how American civilians use and pay for health care. The survey does not include those in the military, incarcerated or in nursing homes, hospitals or homeless shelters.

Previous studies, based on insurance data, showed that Americans’ mental health spending increased by 54 percent from 2020 to 2022, amid a tenfold increase in the use of teletherapy.

The new studies flesh out which Americans are receiving the care. An analysis of 89,619 adults published in JAMA Psychiatry last month found psychotherapy use grew most among the youngest respondents, among the most educated and among those in the highest two income brackets.

An analysis of the use of telehealth by children and adolescents from 2,445 households reached similar conclusions. The study, published today, found that children from wealthier families, using private insurance, were far more likely to use teletherapy. Children in urban areas were nearly three times as likely to use it as their rural counterparts.

During the years of the pandemic, the use of mental health services by Black children and adolescents decreased, falling to 4 percent in 2021 from 9.2 percent in 2019. In the same period, the use of mental health care among white children rose, to 18.4 percent from 15.1 percent, the team found in another study.

“What we find is that it does appear to be just exacerbating existing disparities,” Dr. Olfson said. “I think there’s a real need to try to address that.”

The post Online Therapy Boom Has Mainly Benefited Privileged Groups, Studies Find appeared first on Our Story Insight.

When I am lucky enough to take advantage of this basic investing truth, I never fear sticking my neck out. I did it with my outlook for 2023, which was followed by my outlook for 2024. Both were pound-the-table bullish – and pretty darned accurate.

But overconfidence is always the enemy.  So now I find myself in a slightly uncomfortable position during the thick of the holidays: After trying really hard, I haven’t yet found a basis for a definitive 2025 forecast.  

Politics and sentiment are closing out 2024 in a state of flux. John Angelillo/UPI/Shutterstock

Still, some things are clear and more will be soon. Let me explain.

Good forecasting hinges on assessing economics, politics and sentiment. But stocks near instantly price in all such widely known information and opinions. Success requires vetting possibilities – finding big, definitive forces others don’t see. Then, assign probabilities. If and when one possibility’s probability dominates, that becomes the forecast.

Three 2025 outcomes now look similarly likely to me. Markets could boom another 20%-plus. Or dip slightly. Or just grind out low-single-digit gains. Early in 2025, one of those trends will emerge dominant.

Thirty years ago, I proved that the consensus of professional forecasters’ forecasts reflects what has been pre-priced into stocks fully a year ahead  – and, hence, doesn’t happen. That eliminates some possibilities. Currently their forecasts bunch around low double-digit returns. Eliminate that and my three scenarios remain in play, with no way to rank them – yet. 

Markets could boom another 20%-plus. Or dip slightly. Or just grind out low-single-digit gains. Early in 2025, one of those trends will emerge dominant. REUTERS

The problem: Politics and sentiment are closing out 2024 in a state of flux.

The happiest scenario, up 20% plus, would shock most investors. Three huge years straight? Legendarily rare. Yet with almost no one expecting it, if economic and political realities slightly top expectations, it could happen.

Dec. 18’s steep tumble, while just one aspect, was super bullish. Since World War II, 114 S&P 500 days dropped 2.5% or more shortly after a bull market high. Stocks rose 12 months out 87% of the time, averaging 20%-plus returns.

Also, stocks rose during 60% of presidential inaugural years since 1925 and were almost always hugely positive when they did.

Since World War II, 114 S&P 500 days dropped 2.5% or more shortly after a bull market high. Twelve months later, stocks rose 87% of the time, averaging 20%-plus returns.

Of course, sometimes they didn’t. Enter the down 2025 scenario. 

Trump’s victory-elated Republicans, maybe paving the way for another trick I proved decades ago – the “Perverse Inverse.” Investors overall lean more Republican than Democratic, viewing the GOP as pro-business and Democrats as anti-business. Hence, when Republicans won the White House, spirits rose – and election year returns averaged 15%. When Democrats won, concern rendered below average 8% years.

But with heightened expectations, inaugural GOP administrations also run disappointment risk. Presidents aren’t kings. They rarely accomplish as much as supporters hope and opponents fear. Hence, all but four GOP inaugural years were negative since 1926 (Trump in 2017 being one of the four). In this upcoming inaugural year, Trumpian hope could exceed reality – particularly with a tight congressional margin.

When Republicans won the White House, spirits rose – and election year returns averaged 15%. When Democrats won, returns averaged 8%.

The third scenario: Stocks rise slightly amid dueling geographic sentiments. Bearish Europe fears its own shadow. America’s bulls tout US exceptionalism powering AI, tech and crypto skyward. These may offset each other – wiggling, waggling, and netting little.

What to do? Two of the three scenarios will fade away sometime in the first quarter as yet unforeseen factors leave one dominant. Lots happens soon in both politics and sentiment, like how Trump’s government finally functions.  When I see which scenario will dominate, I’ll be back pounding the table with a definitive forecast for the rest of 2025. 

Meanwhile, if you need growth, stocks remain your default. Why? They rise in almost 75% of calendar years. Betting against 3-to-1 odds without a solid leg up on others is a sucker’s game. Exiting stocks rationally requires seeing something big and bad others don’t. 

Donald Trump rings the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchnage on Dec. 12. Investors overall lean more Republican than Democratic, viewing the GOP as pro-business and Democrats as anti-business. Xinhua/Shutterstock

Absent that, take Jack Bogle’s advice: “Don’t just do something—stand there!”

Ken Fisher is the founder and executive chairman of Fisher Investments, a four-time New York Times bestselling author, and regular columnist in 21 countries globally.

The post There are 3 possible 2025 outlooks for stocks — here’s how to find the right one appeared first on Our Story Insight.