Bitcoin’s previous record was $124,480 in mid-August, buoyed by friendlier regulations from US President Donald Trump’s administration and strong demand from institutional investors.

REUTERS

The cryptocurrency had risen on Friday for an eighth straight session, bolstered by recent gains in US equities and inflows into bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

In contrast, the US dollar retreated on Friday, posting multi-week losses against major currencies, as uncertainty surrounding a US government shutdown clouded the outlook and delayed key data releases, such as payrolls, critical for gauging the economy’s direction.

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Don’t the economy and stocks need the Fed to cut rates NOW?

Might Fed cuts benefit America? Sure! Cuts can steepen the yield curve — the gap between short-term and long-term interest rates. This spurs bank lending, as I detailed in July — one crucial reason that US stock markets this year have been outrun by rate-cutting Europe and other markets overseas. 

With stocks notching all-time highs here and abroad, investor skittishness is likewise going through the roof – after all, there’s more to lose than ever, right? REUTERS

But that doesn’t mean the US desperately needs cuts. As America’s own yield curve flipped from inverted (meaning short rates topped long) to flat this year, lending accelerated from 2.8% versus a year earlier at 2024’s end to 4.5% now. That should continue. America’s economy has other headwinds, but tight credit isn’t an overwhelming one.

And yes — there is a chance that Fed cuts will trigger lower long rates, including mortgage rates. But it’s only a chance — not a given. The global free market sets long rates. History proves you can’t predict long rates from short rate wiggles — at all.

How should investors position if they expect manufacturing to reshore in America?

Despite hearsay, a manufacturing homecoming isn’t necessarily bullish or bearish for US Industrial stocks. Markets mostly care about earnings. Where something is made doesn’t necessarily translate to profits. Reshoring can bring high upfront and ongoing costs – example, vastly higher environmental regulations – hurting margins.

Also, reshoring is a looooong-term issue – if it ever happens at all. Consider the investment, planning and multi-agency state and local permitting time and requirements involved in reshoring plants. Then lawsuits – NIMBY opposition dragging timelines painfully further. This takes years, far beyond the 3-to-30 month window I’ve long taught you stocks generally weigh — making current investing based on reshoring pure speculation.

US stock markets this year have been outrun by rate-cutting Europe and other markets overseas. 

Can I trust the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ jobs numbers?

Jobs data grow more slippery – not from politics but because firms respond ever less and more slowly to the BLS’s surveys – everywhere. Indeed, response rates to statisticians’ surveys are declining globally. That sparks revisions – sometimes huge ones – as lagging data trickle in. Yet private-sector data abound for cross-checking.

Jobs data grow more slippery – not from politics but because firms respond ever less and more slowly to the BLS’s surveys – everywhere. Indeed, response rates to statisticians’ surveys are declining globally. That sparks revisions – sometimes huge ones – as lagging data trickle in. Yet private-sector data abound for cross-checking.

Critically: Monthly data are always wiggly – too noisy for sound investment decisions. Plus, jobs are always late-lagging indicators – usually confirming past realities markets previously pre-priced. Don’t fret or trust one or two months’ revisions – or any single data point.

Don’t fret or trust one or two months’ revisions – or any single data point. Christopher Sadowski

Will President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA)” kill Social Security funding?

This is fraught with politics, so check your biases. Focus on facts not opinions (which with politics most people painfully confuse). Social Security Agency (SSA) officials estimate OBBBA’s $4,000 SSA tax deduction will lop $169 billion from the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance trust funds over the next decade. That shifts SSA’s projected “insolvency” date from Q3 2034 to Q1 2034.  

Scary? Zoom out. First, “insolvency” doesn’t mean “zero benefits” or the program’s “bankruptcy.” Annual revenues would keep paying about 70% to 80% of SSA’s benefits through 2100.

Politicos have huge electoral incentives to keep Social Security chugging. Ron Sachs/CNP / SplashNews.com

The SSA taxes OBBBA cuts actually account for a measly 4% of SSA’s revenues. Most – 91% – comes from payroll taxes. OBBBA doesn’t touch them. And that $4,000 deduction? It is temporary, expiring in 2028 (kind of obvious why…).

Finally, all these estimates are notoriously imprecise, hinging on assumptions about economic growth, interest rates, birth rates and more. They exclude potential future adjustments politicians can make without affecting current beneficiaries. Politicos have huge electoral incentives to keep Social Security chugging.

Welcome these fears – they form the “Wall of Worry” that fuels bull markets. Have others? Drop ’em in the online comments! I may include them in future columns.

Ken Fisher is the founder and executive chairman of Fisher Investments, a four-time New York Times bestselling author, and regular columnist in 21 countries globally.

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The most recent data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows white, large shell eggs are now $2.52 per dozen nationally.

On Jan. 21, that same carton of eggs would have run an American about $6.49, according to data website Trading Economics. 

Trading Economics shows eggs were over $8 a dozen the first week of March.

“Shell egg demand posted a slight improvement headed into the Memorial Day weekend but remained well below average in the continuation of a trend that began during the sharp price increases in late winter,” the USDA Egg Markets Overview weekly publication said. 

Back in April, a study by Clarify Capital said over 30% of Americans had stopped buying eggs due to their exorbitant cost. 

Weaker demand and a lull in new cases of bird flu helped cool prices, analysts said at the time.

The price of eggs has dropped just over 61% since President Donald Trump took office after a spike in March. AP Photo/David Dermer

Data from the US Department of Agriculture shows white, large shell eggs are now $2.52 per dozen nationally, compared to the same carton of eggs costing about $6.49 in January of this year. AP

That same month, Reuters reported that the US had increased imports of eggs from Turkey, Brazil and South Korea in an attempt to increase supplies amid an ongoing bird flu outbreak that has killed nearly 170 million chickens, turkeys and other birds since 2022.

Since the outbreak began in 2022, bird flu has affected over 166 million birds, including 127 million egg layers.

This equates to an average loss of 42.3 million egg layers per year, or about 11% of the five-year average annual layer inventory of 383 million hens since the outbreak began, according to Bernt Nelson, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Foundation. 

According to analysts, a weaker demand and a lull in new cases of bird flu helped cool prices. AFP via Getty Images

The USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) confirms that the effects of the outbreak continue today.

“To date, USDA APHIS has confirmed 43 outbreaks in layer flocks in 10 states (AZ, CA, IA, IN, MO, NC, OH, PA, SD, and WA),” the Egg Markets Overview said. 

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With gold near an all-time high, selling for over $3,200 an ounce, folks are raiding their jewelry boxes and heading to pawn shops, jewelers and smelters to turn their little-worn necklaces, watches, bracelets and earrings into cold hard cash.

“Every day we have more customers just coming in, selling their gold, raiding their cabinets and stuff like that, looking for jewelry,”  said Sabashden M. Hernandez, who works at family-owned A&M Precious Metals in Los Angeles’ jewelry district. “I have not seen anything like this. I’ve been in this business for about eight years and this is pretty crazy for me.”

And at A&M, people are getting their money’s worth. Because the price of gold is so high, customers are getting 99% of the gold’s market value. The shop only takes a 1% cut. 

So how does A&M make a profit? Quantity. On a good day, Hernandez is buying over 400 ounces in gold – at 24k, that’s over $1.2 million.

People are making money by selling and melting their gold, valued for over $3,200 an ounce. Getty Images

The price of gold is so high, customers are getting 99% of the metal’s market value. Getty Images

“A couple years ago, we would have about seven to eight appointments a day. Now we’re in a range of 15 to 20 customers a day,” said Hernandez.

Hernandez says his shop acts as a middleman. The gold is melted down into gold bars, which are then sold to refiners. Refiners turn it into a form that jewelers can work with, getting back to storefronts in no time. And it’s all done in a few block radius in downtown Los Angeles.

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Hernandez holds up a jar filled with gold pellets – the contents weigh exactly 1 kilogram.

“Jewelers here in the jewelry district grab this so they can make chains and stuff,” said Hernandez. “The kilo nowadays is about $107,000.”

Behind the front office is where the magic happens. Alberto Hernandez, Sabashden Hernandez’s uncle, has been smelting gold for more than 20 years. Their smelter is able to hit 6,000 degrees Fahrenheit. But today it’s running at around 2,000 degrees – roughly the melting point of gold.

Molten gold settles in a mold at A&M Precious Metals in the Jewelry District of Los Angeles. AP

“I have not seen anything like this,” Sabashden M. Hernandez, who works at A&M Precious Metals, said. “I’ve been in this business for about eight years and this is pretty crazy for me.” dpa/picture alliance via Getty Images

After the gold is weighed and assayed for quality, it’s thrown in the smelter. In just a few minutes, and with the help of borax to filter out impurities, it’s in molten form. It’s then poured into a mold, cooled off in water, buffed and weighed.

“We smelted it down and we’re going to send that off to the refiner. So that all we were doing was blending it up to make sure we get an even assay when we go to check it right now,” said Alberto Hernandez.

The gold is checked for purity. Fourteen-karat gold is 58.3% pure, while 24-karat gold is 99.9% pure (the market price is based on 24-karat gold).

After it’s checked for purity, the customer walks away with the cash – often surprised by how much money they made.

“I have plenty of customers that say that they’re waiting for gold to go up and now that it’s over $3,000, it’s perfect timing for them. So it’s amazing to hear how long they’ve held on to it,” said Alberto Hernandez.

Hernandez says business changes every day.  When gold is up in the morning, they get more appointments. When it’s down, it’s a little slower. Sometimes customers bring in heirlooms and antiques worth more than their weight in gold.

“I tell them, ‘You sure you want to really melt this down?’” said Hernandez. “’It’s an antique,’ and they just want to do it because they want the money right now because gold’s hot.”

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed more than 300 points before closing at 44,910.65, up 188.59 points, or 0.4%.

The S&P 500 gained 0.6% to 6,032.38, and the Nasdaq was up 0.8%.

All three main indexes rose more than 1% this week, while the Dow and S&P 500 had their best month of the year with gains of 7.5% and 5.7%, respectively.

The Dow rose nearly 200 points and closed at a record in Friday’s shortened session. REUTERS

Information technology stocks including Nvidia helped boost the benchmark S&P 500, while the industrial and financial sectors lifted the blue-chip Dow.

Investors monitored shoppers’ response to deep Black Friday discounts. Adobe Analytics estimated consumers would spend a record $10.8 billion in online purchases, up 9.9% from Black Friday last year.

Shares of Target, Hasbro and Macy’s rose.

“Retailers do a lot of importing. Inventory levels are very important to their profitability and ability to kind of control margins, so they will be one of the industries in the (tariffs) crossfire,” said Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird.

“But so far … (things are) looking pretty solid for the Black Friday, Cyber Monday sale.”

Chip stocks rebounded from Wednesday’s declines, sending the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index higher.

Adobe Analytics estimated consumers would spend a record $10.8 billion in online purchases on Black Friday 2024, a rise of 9.9% over last year. AFP via Getty Images

The small-cap Russell 2000 index also rose as Treasury bond yields retreated further from multi-month highs.

Wall Street’s main indexes closed lower on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq leading declines, as technology stocks slumped on Thanksgiving eve on worries the Federal Reserve may be cautious about rate cuts following stubbornly strong US inflation data.

Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election earlier this month, along with his Republican Party winning the majority in both houses of Congress, provided the latest boost to equities.

Donald Trump’s victory, along with his Republican Party winning the majority in both houses of Congress, provided the latest boost to equities. AFP via Getty Images

Investors were pricing in expectations that Trump’s pro-business policies could spur economic growth and corporate profits. However, concerns prevailed that they could also stoke inflation, slow the pace of the Fed’s rate cuts and weigh on global growth.

Traders expect the  central bank to lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points at its December meeting, but see it pausing rate cuts in January, the CME Group’s FedWatch showed.

Crypto stocks were up as bitcoin climbed 2.5%, trading at about $97,000. MARA Holdings added 1.9%, and Bit Digital advanced 4.1%.

Applied Therapeutics plunged 76% after the Food and Drug Administration declined to approve its drug for the treatment of a rare genetic metabolic disease.

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